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La Liga
Referee: César Soto
Elche
S T S U S
2–1
Full-time
Valencia
T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elche Valencia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,2
This season — La Liga · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
25%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
0%
67%
Average goals
1,5
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%
3 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
0 Corners 7
1 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 8
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Elche 12. · Valencia 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sociedad 6 3 2 1 +8 11
2 Villarreal 6 3 2 1 +0 11
3 Real Madrid 5 3 1 1 +3 10
4 Getafe 5 3 1 1 +2 10
5 Cadiz 6 3 1 2 +0 10
6 Granada 5 3 1 1 -1 10
7 Betis 6 3 0 3 -2 9
8 Ath Madrid 4 2 2 0 +7 8
9 Barcelona 4 2 1 1 +6 7
10 Sevilla 4 2 1 1 +2 7
11 Osasuna 5 2 1 2 +1 7
12 Elche 4 2 1 1 +0 7
13 Valencia 6 2 1 3 -1 7
14 Ath Bilbao 5 2 0 3 -1 6
15 Huesca 6 0 5 1 -2 5
16 Eibar 6 1 2 3 -2 5
17 Celta 6 1 2 3 -6 5
18 Alaves 6 1 1 4 -5 4
19 Valladolid 6 0 3 3 -4 3
20 Levante 5 1 0 4 -5 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Elche Valencia
1–0 Josán Fernández
19′
2–0 Fidel
Josán Fernández
37′
45′
🟨 Gabriel Paulista
Half-time 2–0
Tete Morente 🔁
↦ S. Lucumí
46′
60′
🔁 Hugo Guillamón
↦ M. Diakhaby
Y. Koné 🔁
↦ E. Rigoni
63′
68′
🔁 Manu Vallejo
↦ Gonçalo Guedes
68′
🔁 Lee Kang-In
↦ Gayà
74′
Toni Lato 2–1
Lee Kang-In
Josema 🟨
77′
Fidel 🟨
86′
86′
🔁 U. Račić
↦ D. Wass
86′
🔁 Jason
↦ Y. Musah
Antonio Barragán 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Toni Lato
O. Mfulu 🔁
↦ Raúl Guti
91′
Dani Calvo 🔁
↦ Josán Fernández
94′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Elche

3-4-2-1
13 Edgar Badía G
19 Barragán D
5 Gonzalo Verdú D
24 Josema Sánchez D
4 I. Marcone M
16 Fidel M
20 S. Lucumí F
17 Josán Fernández M
14 Raúl Guti M
10 Pere Milla F
22 E. Rigoni F
Bench (12)
11 Tete Morente
18 Y. Koné
6 O. Mfulu
12 Dani Calvo
37 Jony Carmona
3 J. Sánchez
7 Nino
1 D. Rodríguez
15 Luismi Sánchez
8 Víctor Rodríguez
2 Diego González
40 Diego Bri

Coach: J. Almirón

Valencia

4-4-2
1 Jaume Doménech G
5 Gabriel Paulista D
14 Gayà M
12 M. Diakhaby D
3 Toni Lato D
2 Thierry Correia D
18 D. Wass M
7 Gonçalo Guedes F
8 Carlos Soler M
30 Y. Musah M
9 K. Gameiro F
Bench (12)
15 Hugo Guillamón
21 Manu Vallejo
20 Lee Kang-In
19 U. Račić
23 Jason
25 Cristian Rivero
17 D. Cheryshev
26 Vicente Esquerdo
37 Álex Blanco
4 E. Mangala
13 J. Cillessen
11 Sobrino

Coach: Javi Gracia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,17
U
3,18
B
2,40
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,27
U2,5
1,64
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

César Soto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.