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La Liga
Referee: Santiago Jaime Latre
Valencia
U S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,7
3,2
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
0,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,8
This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 47%
31%
62%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
28%
55%
Both score Ø 48%
48%
48%
Average goals
1,9
3,0
Scored
1,1
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

31% Possession 69%
11 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Valencia 7. · Real Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 30 21 7 2 +48 70
2 Ath Madrid 30 18 8 4 +26 62
3 Real Madrid 29 18 3 8 +18 57
4 Getafe 30 12 11 7 +10 47
5 Alaves 29 12 8 9 -4 44
6 Sevilla 29 12 7 10 +10 43
7 Valencia 29 9 16 4 +8 43
8 Ath Bilbao 30 10 13 7 -1 43
9 Betis 29 11 7 11 -4 40
10 Eibar 30 9 12 9 -1 39
11 Sociedad 29 9 10 10 +0 37
12 Leganes 29 9 9 11 -5 36
13 Espanol 30 9 8 13 -11 35
14 Girona 30 8 10 12 -9 34
15 Levante 30 8 8 14 -12 32
16 Villarreal 30 6 12 12 -5 30
17 Valladolid 29 7 9 13 -16 30
18 Celta 30 7 8 15 -10 29
19 Vallecano 30 6 6 18 -22 24
20 Huesca 30 5 8 17 -20 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Valencia Real Madrid
Daniel Wass 🟨
5′
1–0 Gonçalo Guedes
Carlos Soler
35′
Half-time 1–0
64′
🟨 Álvaro Odriozola
64′
🔁 G. Bale
↦ Marco Asensio
64′
🔁 Isco
↦ T. Kroos
Dani Parejo 🟨
65′
D. Cheryshev 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Guedes
73′
76′
🟨 Marcelo
78′
🔁 M. Díaz
↦ Lucas Vázquez
Ferrán Torres 🔁
↦ Carlos Soler
80′
2–0 E. Garay
Dani Parejo
83′
Santi Mina 🔁
↦ K. Gameiro
85′
93′
K. Benzema 2–1
L. Modrić
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Valencia

4-4-2
13 Neto G
24 E. Garay D
14 José Gayá D
12 M. Diakhaby D
18 D. Wass M
10 Dani Parejo M
6 G. Kondogbia M
7 Gonçalo Guedes M
8 Carlos Soler M
9 K. Gameiro F
19 Rodrigo F
Bench (7)
11 D. Cheryshev
20 Ferrán Torres
22 Santi Mina
1 Jaume Doménech
4 F. Roncaglia
15 Toni Lato
16 Lee Kang-In

Coach: Marcelino

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 K. Navas G
4 Sergio Ramos D
12 Marcelo D
5 R. Varane D
19 Álvaro Odriozola D
10 L. Modrić M
8 T. Kroos M
14 Casemiro M
17 Lucas Vázquez M
20 Marco Asensio M
9 K. Benzema F
Bench (7)
11 G. Bale
22 Isco
7 M. Díaz
3 Jesús Vallejo
24 Dani Ceballos
30 L. Zidane
23 Reguilón

Coach: Z. Zidane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Santiago Jaime Latre · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.