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Champions League
Referee: F Zwayer
Real Madrid
S U T U S
1–0
Full-time
Liverpool
T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 71%
71%
71%
Points per game
2,3
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
71%
71%
Both score Ø 64%
71%
57%
Average goals
4,0
4,3
Scored
2,9
2,7
Conceded
1,1
1,6
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,19 xG 0,56
54% Possession 46%
17 Shots 9
8 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 9
5 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 17
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Feb -23 Liverpool – Real Madrid 2–5

Match report

Real Madrid Liverpool
Half-time 0–0
57′
🔁 Roberto Firmino
↦ D. Núñez
57′
🔁 H. Elliott
↦ Diogo Jota
73′
🔁 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
↦ J. Milner
1–0 K. Benzema ⚽
Vinícius Júnior
78′
Dani Ceballos 🔁
↦ L. Modrić
82′
Rodrygo 🔁
↦ K. Benzema
82′
Marco Asensio 🔁
↦ Vinícius Júnior
84′
A. Tchouaméni 🔁
↦ T. Kroos
84′
Lucas Vázquez 🔁
↦ Dani Carvajal
86′
91′
🔁 K. Tsimikas
↦ A. Robertson
91′
🔁 Fábio Carvalho
↦ C. Gakpo
Rodrygo ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
94′
94′
🟨 Konstantinos Tsimikas
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
2 Dani Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
10 L. Modrić M
12 E. Camavinga M
8 T. Kroos M
15 F. Valverde F
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
19 Dani Ceballos
21 Rodrygo
11 Marco Asensio
18 A. Tchouaméni
17 Lucas Vázquez
23 F. Mendy
16 Odriozola
13 A. Lunin
24 M. Díaz
39 Á. Rodríguez
5 Vallejo
7 E. Hazard

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson G
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
5 I. Konaté D
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
18 C. Gakpo M
3 Fabinho M
7 J. Milner M
11 Mohamed Salah F
20 Diogo Jota F
27 D. Núñez F
Bench (12)
9 Roberto Firmino
19 H. Elliott
15 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
21 K. Tsimikas
28 Fábio Carvalho
62 C. Kelleher
32 J. Matip
46 R. Williams
13 Adrián
8 N. Keïta
17 C. Jones
2 J. Gomez

Coach: J. Klopp

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.