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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Man City

T S S U S

2–2

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,2

2,7

Conceded

0,7

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 75%

77%

73%

Points per game

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 35%

33%

37%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

2,3

2,6

Conceded

0,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

5 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Liverpool 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	30	23	4	3	+52	73
2	Liverpool	30	22	6	2	+57	72
3	Chelsea	30	18	8	4	+41	62
4	Tottenham	31	18	3	10	+19	57
5	Arsenal	30	17	3	10	+9	54
6	West Ham	32	15	6	11	+9	51
7	Man United	31	14	9	8	+7	51
8	Wolves	32	15	4	13	+5	49
9	Leicester	29	11	7	11	-3	40
10	Crystal Palace	31	8	13	10	+3	37
11	Brighton	31	8	13	10	-9	37
12	Aston Villa	31	11	3	17	-4	36
13	Brentford	32	10	6	16	-9	36
14	Southampton	31	8	12	11	-15	36
15	Newcastle	31	8	10	13	-20	34
16	Leeds	32	8	9	15	-30	33
17	Everton	30	8	4	18	-19	28
18	Burnley	30	4	12	14	-19	24
19	Watford	31	6	4	21	-31	22
20	Norwich	31	5	6	20	-43	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+32	39
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	16	10	2	4	+11	32
4	Tottenham	15	10	1	4	+14	31
5	West Ham	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Man United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	Leicester	15	8	3	4	+6	27
8	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+15	26
9	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
10	Crystal Palace	16	5	7	4	+8	22
11	Everton	15	7	1	7	+1	22
12	Southampton	16	5	7	4	+0	22
13	Newcastle	15	5	6	4	-4	21
14	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-1	20
15	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-1	18
16	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
17	Burnley	15	3	6	6	-7	15
18	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
19	Norwich	16	3	3	10	-19	12
20	Watford	15	2	1	12	-23	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+26	36
3	Liverpool	15	10	3	2	+25	33
4	Tottenham	16	8	2	6	+5	26
5	Wolves	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Man United	15	6	5	4	+1	23
7	Brighton	15	5	7	3	+1	22
8	Arsenal	14	7	1	6	-2	22
9	West Ham	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Aston Villa	16	6	0	10	-3	18
11	Brentford	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-18	16
13	Crystal Palace	15	3	6	6	-5	15
14	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
15	Southampton	15	3	5	7	-15	14
16	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	13
17	Newcastle	16	3	4	9	-16	13
18	Burnley	15	1	6	8	-12	9
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-24	9
20	Everton	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.