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Bundesliga

Referee: Timo Gerach

St Pauli

T U T U T

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 23%

19%

26%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 57%

52%

61%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,84 xG 2,54

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 7

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 16. · Mainz 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	26	5	1	+81	+57.9	83
2	Dortmund	31	20	7	4	+34	+22.8	67
3	RB Leipzig	32	19	5	8	+21	+15.7	62
4	Leverkusen	32	17	7	8	+23	+20.6	58
5	Stuttgart	32	17	7	8	+20	+7.8	58
6	Hoffenheim	32	17	7	8	+16	+4.0	58
7	Ein Frankfurt	32	11	10	11	-3	-5.4	43
8	Freiburg	31	12	7	12	-8	+1.3	43
9	Augsburg	32	11	7	14	-14	-15.2	40
10	Mainz	31	8	10	13	-10	-4.0	34
11	Hamburg	32	8	10	14	-15	-19.9	34
12	Union Berlin	32	8	9	15	-20	-10.4	33
13	FC Koln	32	7	11	14	-8	-1.2	32
14	M'gladbach	31	7	11	13	-14	-9.6	32
15	Werder Bremen	32	8	8	16	-20	-10.6	32
16	St Pauli	31	6	8	17	-27	-21.7	26
17	Wolfsburg	31	6	7	18	-25	-16.8	25
18	Heidenheim	32	5	8	19	-31	-15.3	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+45	+33.5	41
2	Dortmund	16	12	2	2	+23	+20.6	38
3	Stuttgart	16	11	3	2	+12	+10.0	36
4	RB Leipzig	16	11	2	3	+19	+13.9	35
5	Leverkusen	16	9	3	4	+19	+23.1	30
6	Hoffenheim	16	9	2	5	+13	+8.6	29
7	Freiburg	15	8	4	3	+8	+10.5	28
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	3	6	+2	+3.1	24
9	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-5	-6.5	23
10	Hamburg	16	5	6	5	+2	-2.7	21
11	FC Koln	16	5	4	7	+2	+5.0	19
12	Union Berlin	16	4	7	5	-4	+4.4	19
13	Werder Bremen	16	5	4	7	-10	+3.3	19
14	M'gladbach	15	4	6	5	-5	-3.4	18
15	Mainz	16	4	5	7	-2	+5.4	17
16	St Pauli	15	4	5	6	-11	-6.2	17
17	Heidenheim	16	4	5	7	-12	-7.8	17
18	Wolfsburg	16	2	4	10	-10	-0.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	3	0	+36	+24.4	42
2	Dortmund	15	8	5	2	+11	+2.1	29
3	Hoffenheim	16	8	5	3	+3	-4.6	29
4	Leverkusen	16	8	4	4	+4	-2.6	28
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	3	5	+2	+1.8	27
6	Stuttgart	16	6	4	6	+8	-2.1	22
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	7	5	-5	-8.5	19
8	Mainz	15	4	5	6	-8	-9.4	17
9	Augsburg	16	5	2	9	-9	-8.7	17
10	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-15	-16.8	15
11	Freiburg	16	4	3	9	-16	-9.2	15
12	M'gladbach	16	3	5	8	-9	-6.3	14
13	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-16	-14.9	14
14	Werder Bremen	16	3	4	9	-10	-13.9	13
15	FC Koln	16	2	7	7	-10	-6.2	13
16	Hamburg	16	3	4	9	-17	-17.1	13
17	St Pauli	16	2	3	11	-16	-15.5	9
18	Heidenheim	16	1	3	12	-19	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.