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Bundesliga

Referee: Martin Petersen

Mainz

S S T T U

3–4

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,7

Scored

1,2

3,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 55%

27%

83%

Points per game

1,1

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

50%

97%

Both score Ø 62%

60%

63%

Average goals

2,7

4,6

Scored

1,2

3,6

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,69 xG 2,21

30% Possession 70%

21 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 10. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	25	4	1	+80	+58.7	79
2	Dortmund	30	19	7	4	+30	+20.2	64
3	RB Leipzig	31	19	5	7	+24	+19.0	62
4	Stuttgart	30	17	5	8	+20	+7.8	56
5	Hoffenheim	30	16	6	8	+15	+3.1	54
6	Leverkusen	30	15	7	8	+19	+19.0	52
7	Freiburg	30	12	7	11	-4	+3.9	43
8	Ein Frankfurt	30	11	9	10	-2	-4.5	42
9	Augsburg	30	10	6	14	-16	-17.3	36
10	Mainz	30	8	10	12	-9	-4.4	34
11	Union Berlin	31	8	8	15	-20	-9.8	32
12	FC Koln	30	7	10	13	-7	-3.5	31
13	M'gladbach	30	7	10	13	-14	-8.7	31
14	Hamburg	30	7	10	13	-15	-19.8	31
15	Werder Bremen	30	8	7	15	-18	-8.5	31
16	St Pauli	30	6	8	16	-25	-21.1	26
17	Wolfsburg	30	6	6	18	-25	-17.8	24
18	Heidenheim	30	4	7	19	-33	-16.2	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	13	1	1	+45	+33.7	40
2	RB Leipzig	16	11	2	3	+19	+13.9	35
3	Dortmund	15	11	2	2	+19	+18.0	35
4	Stuttgart	15	11	2	2	+12	+9.1	35
5	Hoffenheim	15	9	1	5	+13	+7.7	28
6	Freiburg	15	8	4	3	+8	+10.5	28
7	Leverkusen	15	8	3	4	+16	+19.9	27
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	3	5	+3	+3.1	24
9	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	-5	-7.4	22
10	Hamburg	15	5	6	4	+3	-2.6	21
11	FC Koln	15	5	4	6	+3	+3.3	19
12	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-8	+4.5	19
13	Union Berlin	15	4	6	5	-4	+5.0	18
14	M'gladbach	15	4	6	5	-5	-3.4	18
15	Mainz	15	4	5	6	-1	+4.9	17
16	St Pauli	15	4	5	6	-11	-6.2	17
17	Heidenheim	15	3	5	7	-14	-8.4	14
18	Wolfsburg	15	2	3	10	-10	-1.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	3	0	+35	+24.9	39
2	Dortmund	15	8	5	2	+11	+2.1	29
3	RB Leipzig	15	8	3	4	+5	+5.1	27
4	Hoffenheim	15	7	5	3	+2	-4.6	26
5	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+3	-0.9	25
6	Stuttgart	15	6	3	6	+8	-1.2	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	6	5	-5	-7.6	18
8	Mainz	15	4	5	6	-8	-9.4	17
9	Freiburg	15	4	3	8	-12	-6.6	15
10	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-15	-16.8	15
11	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-11	-9.9	14
12	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-16	-14.9	14
13	M'gladbach	15	3	4	8	-9	-5.3	13
14	Werder Bremen	15	3	3	9	-10	-13.0	12
15	FC Koln	15	2	6	7	-10	-6.8	12
16	Hamburg	15	2	4	9	-18	-17.1	10
17	St Pauli	15	2	3	10	-14	-15.0	9
18	Heidenheim	15	1	2	12	-19	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.