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Bundesliga

Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck

Mainz

T T U U S

0–0

Full-time

St Pauli

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 14%

21%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,12 xG 0,30

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 5

1 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 18. · St Pauli 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	2	0	+40	+30.7	38
2	Dortmund	15	9	5	1	+14	+7.9	32
3	Leverkusen	15	9	2	4	+13	+10.1	29
4	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	+11	+7.3	29
5	Hoffenheim	15	8	3	4	+9	+0.4	27
6	Stuttgart	15	8	2	5	+3	+1.9	26
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	4	4	+0	+2.2	25
8	Union Berlin	15	6	3	6	-3	-2.5	21
9	Freiburg	15	5	5	5	-1	+4.3	20
10	Werder Bremen	15	4	5	6	-10	-8.7	17
11	FC Koln	15	4	4	7	-2	-3.2	16
12	M'gladbach	15	4	4	7	-6	-2.2	16
13	Hamburg	15	4	4	7	-9	-3.9	16
14	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-5	-5.2	15
15	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-11	-9.9	14
16	St Pauli	14	3	2	9	-13	-10.2	11
17	Heidenheim	14	3	2	9	-17	-6.9	11
18	Mainz	14	1	4	9	-13	-11.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+25	+16.9	22
2	RB Leipzig	7	6	0	1	+13	+6.3	18
3	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+9	+5.7	17
4	Leverkusen	8	5	1	2	+12	+10.4	16
5	Stuttgart	7	5	1	1	+1	+0.2	16
6	Hamburg	8	4	2	2	+4	+1.5	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.2	13
8	Freiburg	7	3	3	1	+5	+6.8	12
9	Hoffenheim	7	4	0	3	+4	+0.1	12
10	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.0	12
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-4	+0.6	11
12	Augsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.7	10
13	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	+3	+3.0	8
14	Heidenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	-2.5	8
15	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
16	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.0	6
17	Wolfsburg	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.1	5
18	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+15	+13.8	16
2	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.3	15
3	Dortmund	8	4	3	1	+5	+2.2	15
4	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.3	13
5	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	3	2	-3	-1.9	12
6	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
7	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+3	+2.8	10
8	Stuttgart	8	3	1	4	+2	+1.7	10
9	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.2	10
10	Union Berlin	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
11	FC Koln	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.1	8
12	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-6	-2.6	8
13	Werder Bremen	8	1	3	4	-6	-9.3	6
14	Mainz	7	1	2	4	-7	-8.4	5
15	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	-4.2	4
16	St Pauli	7	1	1	5	-6	-7.0	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	0	6	-12	-4.4	3
18	Hamburg	7	0	2	5	-13	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.