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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Welz

Union Berlin

S T T S T

1–1

Full-time

St Pauli

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 26%

30%

22%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 54%

56%

52%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,00 xG 0,33

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Union Berlin 12. · St Pauli 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	23	4	1	+73	+52.1	73
2	Dortmund	28	19	7	2	+32	+21.0	64
3	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	+19	+13.4	53
4	Stuttgart	28	16	5	7	+18	+8.3	53
5	Hoffenheim	28	15	5	8	+14	+2.5	50
6	Leverkusen	28	14	7	7	+19	+17.2	49
7	Ein Frankfurt	27	10	8	9	-1	-2.2	38
8	Freiburg	28	10	7	11	-6	+3.8	37
9	Mainz	28	8	9	11	-8	-6.1	33
10	Augsburg	28	9	5	14	-17	-15.8	32
11	Hamburg	28	7	10	11	-9	-15.8	31
12	Union Berlin	27	8	7	12	-15	-7.9	31
13	M'gladbach	28	7	9	12	-13	-6.3	30
14	Werder Bremen	28	7	7	14	-18	-7.3	28
15	FC Koln	27	6	8	13	-9	-5.8	26
16	St Pauli	27	6	6	15	-20	-16.8	24
17	Wolfsburg	28	5	6	17	-25	-17.2	21
18	Heidenheim	28	3	7	18	-34	-17.0	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	14	11	2	1	+20	+17.3	35
3	Stuttgart	14	10	2	2	+8	+6.3	32
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+16	+9.0	29
5	Leverkusen	14	8	3	3	+17	+17.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	14	8	1	5	+12	+6.2	25
7	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	+10.5	25
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	2	4	+5	+4.4	23
9	Hamburg	15	5	6	4	+3	-2.6	21
10	Augsburg	14	6	3	5	-5	-8.3	21
11	Mainz	14	4	5	5	+0	+4.9	17
12	Union Berlin	13	4	5	4	-3	+1.8	17
13	M'gladbach	14	4	5	5	-5	-1.6	17
14	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	+1	+0.9	16
15	St Pauli	13	4	4	5	-6	-3.5	16
16	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-10	+3.4	16
17	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.2	11
18	Wolfsburg	14	2	3	9	-9	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	3	0	+30	+21.6	36
2	Dortmund	14	8	5	1	+12	+3.7	29
3	Hoffenheim	14	7	4	3	+2	-3.7	25
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+3	+4.4	24
5	Leverkusen	14	6	4	4	+2	-0.2	22
6	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+10	+2.0	21
7	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-8	-11.1	16
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	3	6	5	-6	-6.5	15
9	Union Berlin	14	4	2	8	-12	-9.7	14
10	M'gladbach	14	3	4	7	-8	-4.7	13
11	Werder Bremen	14	3	3	8	-8	-10.7	12
12	Freiburg	14	3	3	8	-13	-6.6	12
13	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-16	-15.2	12
14	Augsburg	14	3	2	9	-12	-7.5	11
15	FC Koln	13	2	4	7	-10	-6.8	10
16	Hamburg	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.2	10
17	St Pauli	14	2	2	10	-14	-13.3	8
18	Heidenheim	14	1	2	11	-18	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.