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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

St Pauli

S U T T U

0–5

Full-time

Bayern Munich

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

4,3

Scored

0,8

3,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 52%

21%

82%

Points per game

0,9

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

54%

96%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

64%

Average goals

2,5

4,5

Scored

0,9

3,6

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+2,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,49 xG 3,84

23% Possession 77%

6 Shots 20

3 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 16. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	23	4	1	+73	+52.1	73
2	Dortmund	29	19	7	3	+31	+21.7	64
3	RB Leipzig	29	17	5	7	+20	+14.0	56
4	Stuttgart	28	16	5	7	+18	+8.3	53
5	Leverkusen	29	15	7	7	+20	+16.5	52
6	Hoffenheim	29	15	6	8	+14	+1.5	51
7	Ein Frankfurt	29	11	9	9	+0	-3.9	42
8	Freiburg	28	10	7	11	-6	+3.8	37
9	Mainz	28	8	9	11	-8	-6.1	33
10	Augsburg	29	9	6	14	-17	-14.8	33
11	Union Berlin	29	8	8	13	-17	-7.1	32
12	Hamburg	28	7	10	11	-9	-15.8	31
13	M'gladbach	29	7	9	13	-14	-7.0	30
14	Werder Bremen	28	7	7	14	-18	-7.3	28
15	FC Koln	28	6	9	13	-9	-5.2	27
16	St Pauli	28	6	7	15	-20	-18.5	25
17	Wolfsburg	29	5	6	18	-26	-16.2	21
18	Heidenheim	29	4	7	18	-32	-16.1	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	15	11	2	2	+19	+18.0	35
3	RB Leipzig	15	10	2	3	+17	+9.6	32
4	Stuttgart	14	10	2	2	+8	+6.3	32
5	Leverkusen	14	8	3	3	+17	+17.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	14	8	1	5	+12	+6.2	25
7	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	+10.5	25
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	3	4	+5	+3.7	24
9	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	-5	-7.4	22
10	Hamburg	15	5	6	4	+3	-2.6	21
11	Union Berlin	14	4	6	4	-3	+3.4	18
12	Mainz	14	4	5	5	+0	+4.9	17
13	M'gladbach	14	4	5	5	-5	-1.6	17
14	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	+1	+0.9	16
15	St Pauli	13	4	4	5	-6	-3.5	16
16	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-10	+3.4	16
17	Heidenheim	15	3	5	7	-14	-8.4	14
18	Wolfsburg	15	2	3	10	-10	-1.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	3	0	+30	+21.6	36
2	Dortmund	14	8	5	1	+12	+3.7	29
3	Hoffenheim	15	7	5	3	+2	-4.6	26
4	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+3	-0.9	25
5	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+3	+4.4	24
6	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+10	+2.0	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	6	5	-5	-7.6	18
8	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-8	-11.1	16
9	Union Berlin	15	4	2	9	-14	-10.6	14
10	M'gladbach	15	3	4	8	-9	-5.3	13
11	Werder Bremen	14	3	3	8	-8	-10.7	12
12	Freiburg	14	3	3	8	-13	-6.6	12
13	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-16	-15.2	12
14	FC Koln	14	2	5	7	-10	-6.1	11
15	Augsburg	14	3	2	9	-12	-7.5	11
16	Hamburg	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.2	10
17	St Pauli	15	2	3	10	-14	-15.0	9
18	Heidenheim	14	1	2	11	-18	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.