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Bundesliga

Referee: Florian Exner

Heidenheim

T U T T S

2–1

Full-time

Freiburg

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,14 xG 1,00

39% Possession 61%

16 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 16. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	11	1	0	+35	+24.1	34
2	RB Leipzig	12	8	2	2	+9	+6.0	26
3	Dortmund	12	7	4	1	+10	+7.2	25
4	Leverkusen	12	7	2	3	+11	+6.9	23
5	Hoffenheim	12	7	2	3	+8	+1.7	23
6	Stuttgart	12	7	1	4	+4	+2.2	22
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+5	+4.0	21
8	Freiburg	12	4	4	4	-1	+3.0	16
9	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-2	-0.2	16
10	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-5	-6.4	16
11	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	+1	-2.4	15
12	Union Berlin	12	4	3	5	-4	-5.2	15
13	Hamburg	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.8	12
14	Augsburg	12	3	1	8	-12	-9.6	10
15	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-8	-3.2	9
16	Heidenheim	12	2	2	8	-17	-9.7	8
17	St Pauli	12	2	1	9	-14	-6.8	7
18	Mainz	13	1	3	9	-13	-7.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+25	+13.0	21
2	RB Leipzig	5	5	0	0	+9	+4.2	15
3	Stuttgart	5	5	0	0	+6	+1.7	15
4	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+10	+8.5	13
5	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+5	+6.3	11
6	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+5	+4.4	11
7	Werder Bremen	6	3	2	1	+0	+1.9	11
8	Hamburg	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.7	10
9	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.7	10
10	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.2	9
11	Union Berlin	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.9	9
12	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	+4	+1.9	7
13	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.1	6
14	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	-8	-5.8	6
15	Heidenheim	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.7	5
16	St Pauli	6	1	1	4	-8	-1.6	4
17	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.4	2
18	Wolfsburg	6	0	2	4	-7	-1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.5	14
2	Dortmund	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
3	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+10	+11.1	13
4	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.3	11
5	RB Leipzig	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.8	11
6	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.9	10
7	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+1	-1.6	10
8	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.3	8
9	Wolfsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.1	7
10	Stuttgart	7	2	1	4	-2	+0.5	7
11	Union Berlin	5	2	0	3	-4	-4.3	6
12	Werder Bremen	6	1	2	3	-5	-8.3	5
13	Freiburg	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.3	5
14	Augsburg	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.8	4
15	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-7	-4.5	4
16	St Pauli	6	1	0	5	-6	-5.2	3
17	Heidenheim	6	1	0	5	-11	-6.0	3
18	Hamburg	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.