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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Schlager

Freiburg

U S S T U

4–0

Full-time

Mainz

U S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 18%

27%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

64%

36%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

55%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4,60 xG 0,11

75% Possession 25%

23 Shots 1

10 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Freiburg 12. · Mainz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	11	1	0	+35	+24.1	34
2	RB Leipzig	12	8	2	2	+9	+6.0	26
3	Dortmund	12	7	4	1	+10	+7.2	25
4	Leverkusen	12	7	2	3	+11	+6.9	23
5	Hoffenheim	12	7	2	3	+8	+1.7	23
6	Stuttgart	12	7	1	4	+4	+2.2	22
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+5	+4.0	21
8	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-5	-6.4	16
9	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	+1	-2.4	15
10	Union Berlin	12	4	3	5	-4	-5.2	15
11	M'gladbach	12	3	4	5	-3	-1.0	13
12	Freiburg	11	3	4	4	-5	-1.5	13
13	Hamburg	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.8	12
14	Augsburg	12	3	1	8	-12	-9.6	10
15	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-8	-3.2	9
16	Heidenheim	12	2	2	8	-17	-9.7	8
17	St Pauli	12	2	1	9	-14	-6.8	7
18	Mainz	11	1	3	7	-8	-2.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+25	+13.0	21
2	RB Leipzig	5	5	0	0	+9	+4.2	15
3	Stuttgart	5	5	0	0	+6	+1.7	15
4	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+10	+8.5	13
5	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+5	+4.4	11
6	Werder Bremen	6	3	2	1	+0	+1.9	11
7	Hamburg	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.7	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.7	10
9	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.2	9
10	Union Berlin	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.9	9
11	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.8	8
12	FC Koln	5	2	1	2	+4	+1.9	7
13	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.1	6
14	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	-8	-5.8	6
15	Heidenheim	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.7	5
16	St Pauli	6	1	1	4	-8	-1.6	4
17	Mainz	6	0	2	4	-5	-2.5	2
18	Wolfsburg	6	0	2	4	-7	-1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.5	14
2	Dortmund	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
3	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+10	+11.1	13
4	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.3	11
5	RB Leipzig	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.8	11
6	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+1	-1.6	10
7	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.3	8
8	M'gladbach	5	2	1	2	+4	+3.0	7
9	Wolfsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.1	7
10	Stuttgart	7	2	1	4	-2	+0.5	7
11	Union Berlin	5	2	0	3	-4	-4.3	6
12	Werder Bremen	6	1	2	3	-5	-8.3	5
13	Freiburg	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.3	5
14	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.1	4
15	Augsburg	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.8	4
16	St Pauli	6	1	0	5	-6	-5.2	3
17	Heidenheim	6	1	0	5	-11	-6.0	3
18	Hamburg	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.