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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Mainz

S S S T T

2–0

Full-time

Stuttgart

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Stuttgart

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 47%

44%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

56%

72%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,93 xG 1,11

43% Possession 57%

11 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 2

4 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 7. · Stuttgart 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	18	14	3	1	+41	+34.0	45
2	Leverkusen	18	12	5	1	+20	+15.5	41
3	Ein Frankfurt	18	11	3	4	+18	+8.3	36
4	Stuttgart	18	9	5	4	+10	+11.5	32
5	RB Leipzig	18	9	4	5	+5	-4.6	31
6	Wolfsburg	19	8	4	7	+8	-2.0	28
7	Mainz	18	8	4	6	+8	-0.9	28
8	Freiburg	18	8	3	7	-9	-1.5	27
9	Werder Bremen	18	7	5	6	-3	+0.1	26
10	Dortmund	18	7	4	7	+1	+2.6	25
11	M'gladbach	18	7	3	8	-2	-6.0	24
12	Augsburg	18	6	4	8	-12	-6.6	22
13	Union Berlin	18	5	5	8	-8	-4.4	20
14	St Pauli	18	5	2	11	-7	-4.9	17
15	Hoffenheim	18	4	5	9	-12	-9.6	17
16	Heidenheim	18	4	2	12	-15	-5.6	14
17	Holstein Kiel	19	3	3	13	-20	-11.6	12
18	Bochum	18	2	4	12	-23	-14.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+24	+20.0	25
2	Leverkusen	10	7	2	1	+12	+12.1	23
3	Ein Frankfurt	9	6	2	1	+13	+9.8	20
4	Stuttgart	10	6	2	2	+11	+12.9	20
5	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
6	Freiburg	8	6	1	1	+6	+4.1	19
7	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.8	17
8	M'gladbach	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.8	16
9	Union Berlin	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.9	15
10	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+2	+3.0	14
11	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.4	14
12	Wolfsburg	10	3	3	4	+0	+0.9	12
13	Hoffenheim	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.0	10
14	Werder Bremen	9	2	4	3	-4	-0.8	10
15	Bochum	9	2	3	4	-7	-2.5	9
16	Holstein Kiel	10	3	0	7	-11	-5.3	9
17	Heidenheim	9	2	1	6	-8	-1.3	7
18	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-7	-0.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	2	1	+17	+14.0	20
2	Leverkusen	8	5	3	0	+8	+3.4	18
3	Wolfsburg	9	5	1	3	+8	-2.9	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+5	-1.5	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	5	1	3	+1	+0.9	16
6	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+6	-3.9	14
7	RB Leipzig	10	4	2	4	-1	-7.4	14
8	St Pauli	10	4	0	6	+0	-4.9	12
9	Stuttgart	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.3	12
10	M'gladbach	9	2	2	5	-8	-6.8	8
11	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-13	-10.0	8
12	Freiburg	10	2	2	6	-15	-5.6	8
13	Heidenheim	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.2	7
14	Hoffenheim	9	1	4	4	-8	-9.6	7
15	Union Berlin	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.3	5
16	Dortmund	9	1	2	6	-10	-3.7	5
17	Holstein Kiel	9	0	3	6	-9	-6.4	3
18	Bochum	9	0	1	8	-16	-11.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.