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Bundesliga

Referee: T Reichel

Hoffenheim

S T T T U

3–4

Full-time

Werder Bremen

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

100%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–3

1,29 xG 3,33

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 10

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 16. · Werder Bremen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.4	13
2	Ein Frankfurt	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.5	12
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.0	11
4	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+4	+5.0	10
5	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.8	10
6	Heidenheim	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.1	9
7	Freiburg	5	3	0	2	+1	+4.3	9
8	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	+4	+4.0	8
9	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
10	M'gladbach	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.3	6
11	Mainz	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.1	5
12	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	-4	-1.9	5
13	Wolfsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.2	4
14	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
15	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.0	4
16	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.3	3
17	Bochum	5	0	1	4	-6	-7.4	1
18	Holstein Kiel	5	0	1	4	-10	-5.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.3	9
2	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
3	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
4	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
5	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+0	+4.1	6
6	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
7	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.9	4
8	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.3	4
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.5	3
12	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
14	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
15	St Pauli	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
16	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.8	1
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.2	1
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.5	9
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.5	7
3	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.1	6
5	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
6	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
7	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
8	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
9	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
10	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
11	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.7	3
12	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
13	Union Berlin	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
14	Holstein Kiel	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
15	Dortmund	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.5	1
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-8	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.