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Super League
Referee: S Wolfensberger
Luzern
S S S U S
1–0
Full-time
Basel
S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
2,2
2,2
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 50%
57%
43%
Points per game
2,0
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
71%
57%
Both score Ø 57%
71%
43%
Average goals
3,3
3,3
Scored
2,0
2,1
Conceded
1,3
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,93 xG 0,33
44% Possession 56%
28 Shots 12
10 Shots on target 1
8 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 9
14 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luzern 3. · Basel 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Zurich 8 5 2 1 +6 +0.4 17
2 Servette 8 5 1 2 -2 -2.9 16
3 Luzern 7 4 2 1 +5 +0.5 14
4 Lugano 7 4 2 1 +4 +0.1 14
5 St. Gallen 8 4 1 3 +6 -0.1 13
6 Sion 8 3 2 3 +3 +3.2 11
7 Basel 7 3 1 3 +7 +3.9 10
8 Grasshoppers 8 2 2 4 -3 +2.6 8
9 Yverdon 8 2 2 4 -5 -3.2 8
10 Lausanne 8 2 1 5 -6 +3.2 7
11 Young Boys 8 1 3 4 -5 -2.7 6
12 Winterthur 7 1 1 5 -10 -5.1 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luzern Basel
Half-time 0–0
Nicky Beloko 🟨
48′
49′
🟨 Nicolas Vouilloz
55′
🔁 M. Šotiček
↦ X. Shaqiri
56′
🟨 Leon Avdullahu
L. Winkler 🔁
↦ T. Owusu
63′
A. Grbic 🔁
↦ T. Klidje
63′
70′
🔁 Kevin Carlos
↦ A. Ajeti
70′
🔁 J. Mendes
↦ A. Kade
K. Spadanuda 🔁
↦ L. Villiger
72′
J. Löfgren 🔁
↦ S. Knezevic
72′
1–0 L. Jaquez
D. Rrudhani
78′
82′
🔁 B. Fink
↦ N. Vouilloz
S. Ottiger 🔁
↦ A. Stanković
84′
85′
🟨 Bradley Fink
Severin Ottiger 🟨
87′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Luzern

4-3-1-2
1 P. Loretz G
20 P. Dorn D
4 L. Jaquez D
5 S. Knezevic D
14 A. Cigaņiks D
24 T. Owusu M
8 A. Stanković M
18 N. Beloko M
11 D. Rrudhani M
27 L. Villiger F
17 T. Klidje F
Bench (9)
29 L. Winkler
9 A. Grbic
7 K. Spadanuda
3 J. Löfgren
2 S. Ottiger
46 B. Freimann
16 J. Kadák
22 D. Ulrich
41 J. Bock

Coach: M. Frick

Basel

3-4-3
1 M. Hitz G
26 A. Barišić D
32 J. Adjetey D
3 N. Vouilloz D
30 A. Kade M
37 L. Avdullahu M
22 L. Leroy M
31 D. Schmid M
10 X. Shaqiri F
23 A. Ajeti F
11 B. Traoré F
Bench (9)
19 M. Šotiček
9 Kevin Carlos
17 J. Mendes
14 B. Fink
29 M. Cissé
13 M. Salvi
34 T. Xhaka
18 E. Essiam
43 M. Akahomen

Coach: F. Celestini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Wolfensberger · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.