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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Ipswich

T U U U U

2–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

80%

Points per game

0,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

20%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

2,2

3,4

Scored

0,6

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,18 xG 0,82

44% Possession 56%

15 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 18. · Aston Villa 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+10	+8.3	15
2	Man City	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.1	14
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+7	+3.4	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	+5.2	13
5	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+3	+3.5	12
6	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+3	+1.7	11
7	Newcastle	6	3	2	1	+1	-1.3	11
8	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.8	9
9	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+1	+2.1	9
10	Tottenham	5	2	1	2	+4	+3.7	7
11	Man United	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
12	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-2	-5.2	7
13	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	+0.8	5
14	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-4	-3.3	5
15	Everton	6	1	1	4	-8	-3.5	4
16	Leicester	6	0	3	3	-4	-8.5	3
17	Crystal Palace	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.6	3
18	Ipswich	5	0	3	2	-5	-7.9	3
19	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-7	-2.7	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	1	0	+4	+5.8	7
2	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+4	+5.3	7
3	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.7	7
4	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
5	Newcastle	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
6	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.1	6
7	Liverpool	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.8	6
8	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.8	6
9	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
10	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+0	+5.1	4
11	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.6	3
12	Everton	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
13	Leicester	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.7	2
14	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
15	Crystal Palace	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.6	2
16	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
18	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.9	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+8	+0.1	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.5	9
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.9	7
5	Nott'm Forest	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.2	7
6	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
7	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.1	5
8	Man United	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.6	4
9	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.3	4
10	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
11	Newcastle	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.0	4
12	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.8	4
13	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-3	-5.2	2
14	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
15	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
16	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	-6.8	1
17	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.3	1
18	Everton	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.3	0
20	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.