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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Twente

T U S S U

1–0

Full-time

NAC Breda

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,21 xG 0,39

59% Possession 41%

18 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Twente 4. · NAC Breda 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+21	+12.4	21
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.4	13
3	Utrecht	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.7	13
4	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+7.2	11
5	Feyenoord	6	2	4	0	+6	+6.3	10
6	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	4	1	+1	-1.2	10
7	Groningen	6	2	3	1	+3	-0.8	9
8	Heracles	7	2	3	2	-3	-0.6	9
9	Willem II	7	2	2	3	+1	-3.0	8
10	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+5	+4.1	7
11	Heerenveen	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.3	7
12	Nijmegen	7	2	1	4	-1	-3.7	7
13	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-3	-4.6	7
14	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.7	7
15	For Sittard	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.3	7
16	NAC Breda	6	2	0	4	-8	-5.6	6
17	Almere City	7	0	2	5	-16	-5.3	2
18	Waalwijk	6	0	0	6	-14	-7.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.8	9
2	Utrecht	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.3	9
3	Heerenveen	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.9	7
4	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.0	6
5	Willem II	4	2	0	2	+2	-0.2	6
6	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.3	6
7	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
8	Groningen	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.0	5
9	Twente	3	1	2	0	+2	+6.2	5
10	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
11	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+2	+4.1	4
12	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.8	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
14	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.0	3
16	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.9	3
17	Almere City	4	0	1	3	-12	-2.2	1
18	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+12	+6.6	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.8	10
3	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.2	7
4	Twente	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.0	6
5	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+2.3	6
6	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
7	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
8	Heracles	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.5	4
9	For Sittard	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.3	4
10	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+0	-3.1	3
11	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.1	3
12	Willem II	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.8	2
13	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
14	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.5	1
15	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
16	Heerenveen	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.2	0
17	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.6	0
18	NAC Breda	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.