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Champions League
Referee: D Siebert
Milan
S T S T S
0–2
Full-time
Chelsea
T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,2
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

30% Possession 70%
7 Shots 15
1 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 18
6 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Oct -22 Chelsea – Milan 3–0

Match report

Milan Chelsea
Fikayo Tomori 🟥
18′
Olivier Giroud 🟨
20′
20′
🟨 Mason Mount
21′
⚽ Jorginho 0–1
29′
🟨 Raheem Sterling
Matteo Gabbia 🟨
32′
34′
⚽ P. Aubameyang 0–2
M. Mount
Rade Krunić 🟨
35′
S. Dest 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
37′
Half-time 0–2
46′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ M. Mount
A. Rebić 🔁
↦ O. Giroud
62′
T. Pobega 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
62′
62′
🔁 R. Loftus-Cheek
↦ R. Sterling
62′
🔁 César Azpilicueta
↦ R. James
Tommaso Pobega 🟨
66′
79′
🔁 K. Havertz
↦ P. Aubameyang
F. Ballo 🔁
↦ T. Hernández
80′
D. Origi 🔁
↦ Rafael Leão
80′
85′
🟨 Conor Gallagher
Sandro Tonali 🟨
89′
89′
🔁 Marc Cucurella
↦ B. Chilwell
Fodé Ballo-Touré 🟨
90′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
1 C. Tătărușanu G
20 P. Kalulu D
46 M. Gabbia D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
4 I. Bennacer M
8 S. Tonali M
10 Brahim Díaz M
33 R. Krunić M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (9)
21 S. Dest
12 A. Rebić
32 T. Pobega
5 F. Ballo
27 D. Origi
30 Junior Messias
93 A. Coubiș
96 A. Jungdal
83 A. Mirante

Coach: S. Pioli

Chelsea

3-4-2-1
1 Kepa G
14 T. Chalobah D
6 Thiago Silva D
26 K. Koulibaly D
24 R. James M
8 M. Kovačić M
5 Jorginho M
21 B. Chilwell M
19 M. Mount F
17 R. Sterling F
9 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (11)
23 C. Gallagher
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
28 César Azpilicueta
29 K. Havertz
32 Marc Cucurella
16 É. Mendy
20 D. Zakaria
10 C. Pulišić
13 M. Bettinelli
30 C. Chukwuemeka
18 A. Broja

Coach: G. Potter

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.