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Super League
Referee: L Cibelli
Lugano
U T T U S
3–1
Full-time
Winterthur
S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Winterthur
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
1,5
Scored
1,3
0,8
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,2
This season — Super League · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 34%
40%
27%
Points per game
1,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
67%
40%
Both score Ø 57%
67%
47%
Average goals
3,2
2,7
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,7
1,9
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

53% Possession 47%
11 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 7. · Winterthur 9. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 15 9 5 1 +23 32
2 Servette 16 6 7 3 +1 25
3 St. Gallen 16 7 3 6 +9 24
4 Basel 16 5 6 5 +4 21
5 Luzern 15 5 5 5 +3 20
6 Grasshoppers 16 5 5 6 -2 20
7 Lugano 15 6 2 7 -2 20
8 Sion 16 5 5 6 -6 20
9 Winterthur 15 4 4 7 -16 16
10 Zurich 16 2 6 8 -14 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

31. Jul -22 Winterthur – Lugano 1–4

Match report

Lugano Winterthur
1–0 Ž. Celar ⚽
7′
2–0 Ž. Celar ⚽
15′
20′
⚽ M. Di Giusto 2–1
R. Buess
Allan Arigoni 🟨
33′
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 N. Manzambi
↦ R. Buess
Milton Valenzuela 🟨
50′
57′
🔁 S. Seiler
↦ T. Corbaz
59′
🟨 Samir Ramizi
R. Macek 🔁
↦ U. Bislimi
67′
M. Bottani 🔁
↦ M. Haile-Selassie
67′
75′
🔁 F. Kamberi
↦ N. Burkart
B. Babic 🔁
↦ Ž. Celar
77′
83′
🔁 T. Schättin
↦ S. Diaby
83′
🔁 H. Kryeziu
↦ E. Abedini
M. Amoura 🔁
↦ M. Bottani
88′
3–1 M. Amoura ⚽
89′
Mohamed El Amine Amoura 🟨
90′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
34 A. Arigoni D
15 L. Mai D
30 F. Daprelà D
17 M. Valenzuela D
20 O. Doumbia M
14 J. Sabbatini M
22 R. Steffen M
25 U. Bislimi M
11 M. Haile-Selassie M
9 Ž. Celar F
Bench (8)
77 R. Macek
10 M. Bottani
27 B. Babic
47 M. Amoura
58 S. Osigwe
4 K. Hajrizi
24 C. Nkama
29 H. Mahmoud

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Winterthur

4-2-3-1
36 J. Pukaj G
19 A. Gantenbein D
25 Y. Schmid D
16 R. Arnold D
18 S. Diaby D
14 T. Corbaz M
77 E. Abedini M
10 M. Di Giusto M
8 S. Ramizi M
99 N. Burkart M
9 R. Buess F
Bench (8)
11 N. Manzambi
33 S. Seiler
22 F. Kamberi
3 T. Schättin
40 H. Kryeziu
34 P. Hammer
27 A. Abaz
15 M. Gonçalves

Coach: B. Berner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Cibelli · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.