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Super League
Referee: L Cibelli
Winterthur
U T
1–4
Full-time
Lugano
U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,0
3,7
Scored
0,5
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
This season — Super League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,5
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,0
4,0
Scored
0,5
1,5
Conceded
1,5
2,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

46% Possession 54%
12 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 3
1 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 7
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Winterthur 8. · Lugano 10. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 2 2 0 0 +7 6
2 St. Gallen 3 2 0 1 +3 6
3 Servette 3 1 2 0 +1 5
4 Sion 3 1 1 1 -2 4
5 Grasshoppers 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Basel 2 0 2 0 +0 2
7 Luzern 1 0 1 0 +0 1
8 Winterthur 2 0 1 1 -2 1
9 Zurich 3 0 1 2 -6 1
10 Lugano 2 0 0 2 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Winterthur Lugano
1–0 R. Buess ⚽
11′
19′
⚽ Ž. Celar 1–1
M. Bottani
22′
⚽ M. Haile-Selassie 1–2
M. Bottani
27′
🟨 Allan Arigoni
31′
⚽ M. Bottani 1–3
H. Mahou
Half-time 1–3
A. Gantenbein 🔁
↦ T. Corbaz
46′
E. Abedini 🔁
↦ R. Arnold
46′
Souleymane Diaby 🟨
48′
S. Ballet 🔁
↦ M. Di Giusto
60′
F. Kamberi 🔁
↦ S. Diaby
73′
73′
🔁 U. Bislimi
↦ M. Haile-Selassie
Samuel Ballet 🟨
76′
80′
🔁 H. Mahmoud
↦ H. Mahou
C. Chiappetta 🔁
↦ S. Ramizi
81′
87′
🔁 A. Hajdari
↦ M. Bottani
87′
🔁 A. Durrer
↦ A. Arigoni
Michael Gonçalves 🟨
89′
91′
⚽ Ž. Celar 1–4
Francisco Jose Rodriguez 🟨
95′
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Winterthur

4-2-3-1
36 J. Pukaj G
15 M. Gonçalves D
4 G. Lekaj D
25 Y. Schmid D
18 S. Diaby D
14 T. Corbaz M
16 R. Arnold M
8 S. Ramizi M
44 F. Rodríguez M
10 M. Di Giusto M
9 R. Buess F
Bench (9)
19 A. Gantenbein
77 E. Abedini
17 S. Ballet
22 F. Kamberi
20 C. Chiappetta
3 T. Schättin
5 R. Gelmi
1 T. Fayulu
11 N. Manzambi

Coach: B. Berner

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
34 A. Arigoni D
15 L. Mai D
3 R. Ziegler D
17 M. Valenzuela D
14 J. Sabbatini M
20 O. Doumbia M
11 M. Haile-Selassie M
10 M. Bottani M
18 H. Mahou M
9 Ž. Celar F
Bench (7)
25 U. Bislimi
29 H. Mahmoud
5 A. Hajdari
8 A. Durrer
33 A. Casciato
58 S. Osigwe
23 L. Srdić

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Cibelli · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.