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Super League
Referee: L Fähndrich
Basel
S T S S S
2–1
Full-time
Lugano
S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
80%
20%
Points per game
2,4
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
100%
40%
Both score Ø 50%
80%
20%
Average goals
4,0
2,4
Scored
2,8
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+0,0
This season — Super League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
80%
20%
Points per game
2,4
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
100%
40%
Both score Ø 50%
80%
20%
Average goals
4,0
2,4
Scored
2,8
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%
19 Shots 21
11 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 9
9 Corners 7
1 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Basel 2. · Lugano 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 5 4 1 0 +8 13
2 Basel 5 4 0 1 +8 12
3 Sion 5 3 1 1 +1 10
4 Servette 6 2 3 1 +3 9
5 St. Gallen 6 2 1 3 -2 7
6 Thun 5 1 2 2 -3 5
7 Zurich 6 1 2 3 -9 5
8 Lugano 5 1 1 3 +0 4
9 Luzern 5 1 1 3 -2 4
10 Xamax 6 0 4 2 -4 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.