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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Mainz

U T T S S

1–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,5

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 55%

36%

73%

Points per game

1,4

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

45%

73%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

64%

Average goals

2,0

4,1

Scored

0,9

3,0

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

34% Possession 66%

15 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 9. · Dortmund 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	11	8	3	0	+21	27
2	M'gladbach	11	7	2	2	+13	23
3	RB Leipzig	11	6	4	1	+13	22
4	Ein Frankfurt	11	6	2	3	+13	20
5	Bayern Munich	11	6	2	3	+6	20
6	Hoffenheim	11	6	1	4	+9	19
7	Werder Bremen	11	5	2	4	+0	17
8	Hertha	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Mainz	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Leverkusen	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Augsburg	11	3	4	4	+1	13
12	Freiburg	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Wolfsburg	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Schalke 04	11	3	1	7	-7	10
15	Nurnberg	11	2	4	5	-13	10
16	Hannover	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	2	2	7	-15	8
18	Stuttgart	12	2	2	8	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	5	1	0	+14	16
2	M'gladbach	5	5	0	0	+12	15
3	RB Leipzig	6	4	2	0	+12	14
4	Mainz	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	1	1	+11	10
6	Hoffenheim	6	3	1	2	+5	10
7	Hertha	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	Bayern Munich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Freiburg	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Hannover	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Augsburg	5	1	3	1	+2	6
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	2	0	4	-3	6
16	Schalke 04	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Stuttgart	5	1	1	3	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	0	2	+5	12
2	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	10
4	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+4	9
5	Werder Bremen	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	M'gladbach	6	2	2	2	+1	8
7	RB Leipzig	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Hertha	6	1	3	2	-3	6
12	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Schalke 04	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Stuttgart	7	1	1	5	-9	4
16	Hannover	6	0	2	4	-8	2
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	0	2	3	-12	2
18	Nurnberg	5	0	2	3	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.