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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Southampton

S T S T U

3–3

Full-time

Bournemouth

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 30%

26%

34%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

60%

63%

Both score Ø 55%

66%

43%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

44% Possession 56%

22 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

8 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 16. · Bournemouth 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	36	28	7	1	+64	91
2	Man City	35	29	2	4	+67	89
3	Tottenham	36	23	1	12	+29	70
4	Chelsea	35	20	7	8	+21	67
5	Arsenal	35	20	6	9	+23	66
6	Man United	35	19	7	9	+13	64
7	Wolves	35	14	9	12	+1	51
8	Watford	35	14	8	13	+0	50
9	Everton	35	14	7	14	+6	49
10	Leicester	35	14	6	15	+1	48
11	West Ham	36	13	7	16	-9	46
12	Crystal Palace	35	12	6	17	-5	42
13	Newcastle	35	11	8	16	-9	41
14	Bournemouth	35	12	5	18	-13	41
15	Burnley	35	11	7	17	-18	40
16	Southampton	35	9	10	16	-17	37
17	Brighton	35	9	7	19	-22	34
18	Cardiff	35	9	4	22	-35	31
19	Fulham	35	6	5	24	-43	23
20	Huddersfield	36	3	5	28	-54	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	17	0	1	+44	51
2	Liverpool	18	16	2	0	+43	50
3	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+26	44
4	Chelsea	18	11	6	1	+24	39
5	Tottenham	18	12	1	5	+18	37
6	Man United	17	10	5	2	+10	35
7	Everton	18	9	4	5	+7	31
8	Wolves	18	9	4	5	+6	31
9	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+2	28
10	Watford	17	8	3	6	+2	27
11	Bournemouth	18	7	5	6	+4	26
12	Newcastle	18	8	1	9	+0	25
13	Leicester	17	7	2	8	+1	23
14	Burnley	17	7	2	8	-5	23
15	Brighton	17	6	4	7	-6	22
16	Southampton	17	5	6	6	-3	21
17	Cardiff	18	6	2	10	-16	20
18	Fulham	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	16
20	Huddersfield	18	2	2	14	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	12	5	1	+21	41
2	Man City	17	12	2	3	+23	38
3	Tottenham	18	11	0	7	+11	33
4	Man United	18	9	2	7	+3	29
5	Chelsea	17	9	1	7	-3	28
6	Crystal Palace	18	8	2	8	+1	26
7	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Watford	18	6	5	7	-2	23
9	Arsenal	17	6	4	7	-3	22
10	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-5	20
11	Everton	17	5	3	9	-1	18
12	West Ham	18	5	3	10	-11	18
13	Burnley	18	4	5	9	-13	17
14	Newcastle	17	3	7	7	-9	16
15	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-14	16
16	Bournemouth	17	5	0	12	-17	15
17	Brighton	18	3	3	12	-16	12
18	Cardiff	17	3	2	12	-19	11
19	Huddersfield	18	1	3	14	-33	6
20	Fulham	18	1	2	15	-32	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.