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Championship

Referee: A Kitchen

Cardiff

U T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Millwall

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 34%

42%

26%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 45%

47%

42%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,65 xG 1,70

47% Possession 53%

7 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 11. · Millwall 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	19	15	1	3	+22	+14.3	46
2	Ipswich	19	14	3	2	+16	+9.9	45
3	Leeds	19	11	5	3	+15	+15.8	38
4	Southampton	18	10	4	4	+3	+7.1	34
5	West Brom	19	9	5	5	+11	+2.4	32
6	Sunderland	20	9	3	8	+8	+12.7	30
7	Hull	19	8	6	5	+5	+5.1	30
8	Blackburn	20	9	1	10	-1	+1.8	28
9	Preston	19	8	4	7	-8	-7.7	28
10	Watford	19	7	6	6	+5	+2.6	27
11	Cardiff	19	8	3	8	+4	-3.8	27
12	Middlesbrough	19	8	3	8	+2	+9.8	27
13	Norwich	18	8	2	8	-1	-2.8	26
14	Coventry	20	6	7	7	+3	+7.4	25
15	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	-1	+1.3	25
16	Birmingham	20	6	5	9	-6	-2.9	23
17	Plymouth	19	6	4	9	+2	-8.8	22
18	Swansea	19	5	6	8	-1	-5.6	21
19	Millwall	19	5	6	8	-5	-8.2	21
20	Stoke	19	6	3	10	-8	-4.5	21
21	Huddersfield	19	4	8	7	-13	-10.7	20
22	QPR	19	4	4	11	-13	-8.7	16
23	Rotherham	19	2	7	10	-20	-21.3	13
24	Sheffield Weds	19	2	4	13	-19	-5.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	10	9	0	1	+13	+10.3	27
2	Leeds	10	7	3	0	+12	+12.8	24
3	Leicester	9	7	0	2	+9	+6.9	21
4	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
5	Plymouth	10	6	1	3	+10	-3.9	19
6	Birmingham	10	5	4	1	+6	+1.1	19
7	Watford	10	5	3	2	+11	+8.6	18
8	Sunderland	10	6	0	4	+6	+6.6	18
9	Coventry	10	4	5	1	+5	+5.7	17
10	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.2	17
11	Preston	10	5	2	3	-2	-3.4	17
12	Hull	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.4	16
13	Cardiff	9	5	1	3	+5	-0.6	16
14	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	+4	+7.7	16
15	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.9	15
16	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+1	+2.3	14
17	Stoke	9	4	1	4	-2	-2.2	13
18	Blackburn	10	4	0	6	-5	+1.2	12
19	Rotherham	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.8	11
20	Swansea	10	2	5	3	+0	-0.1	11
21	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-6	-3.9	10
22	Sheffield Weds	10	2	3	5	-6	-0.4	9
23	Millwall	10	2	2	6	-8	-3.6	8
24	QPR	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.4	25
2	Ipswich	9	5	3	1	+3	-0.4	18
3	Southampton	9	5	2	2	-1	+0.9	17
4	Blackburn	10	5	1	4	+4	+0.6	16
5	Leeds	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.1	14
6	Hull	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.3	14
7	Millwall	9	3	4	2	+3	-4.6	13
8	West Brom	9	3	3	3	+3	-1.8	12
9	Sunderland	10	3	3	4	+2	+6.1	12
10	Cardiff	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.2	11
11	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-2	+2.1	11
12	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.0	11
13	Norwich	10	3	2	5	-3	-4.7	11
14	QPR	11	3	2	6	-5	-6.2	11
15	Preston	9	3	2	4	-6	-4.4	11
16	Swansea	9	3	1	5	-1	-5.5	10
17	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-7	-6.8	10
18	Watford	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9
19	Coventry	10	2	2	6	-2	+1.7	8
20	Stoke	10	2	2	6	-6	-2.3	8
21	Birmingham	10	1	1	8	-12	-4.0	4
22	Plymouth	9	0	3	6	-8	-4.9	3
23	Rotherham	10	0	2	8	-21	-15.5	2
24	Sheffield Weds	9	0	1	8	-13	-4.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.