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Bundesliga

Referee: M Petersen

Union Berlin

T U T U U

3–1

Full-time

M'gladbach

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

0,5

2,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 24%

17%

31%

Points per game

0,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

67%

92%

Both score Ø 60%

42%

77%

Average goals

3,3

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

2,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,06 xG 1,09

38% Possession 62%

16 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 18. · M'gladbach 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	11	2	0	+27	+14.3	35
2	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+34	+27.9	32
3	Stuttgart	13	10	0	3	+18	+19.8	30
4	RB Leipzig	13	8	2	3	+18	+10.2	26
5	Dortmund	13	7	4	2	+6	+1.5	25
6	Hoffenheim	14	7	2	5	+4	-1.6	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	6	3	+4	+0.1	18
8	Freiburg	13	5	3	5	-7	-1.6	18
9	Augsburg	13	4	5	4	-2	+0.6	17
10	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-1	-2.2	16
11	Wolfsburg	13	5	1	7	-6	-2.6	16
12	Bochum	14	2	7	5	-14	-6.8	13
13	Werder Bremen	13	3	2	8	-9	-8.1	11
14	Heidenheim	13	3	2	8	-10	-15.9	11
15	FC Koln	13	2	3	8	-14	-14.0	9
16	Darmstadt	13	2	3	8	-19	-14.0	9
17	Mainz	13	1	5	7	-14	-3.6	8
18	Union Berlin	12	2	1	9	-15	-4.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	7	6	1	0	+16	+11.6	19
2	Stuttgart	7	6	0	1	+16	+14.5	18
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.3	17
4	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
5	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+3	+5.5	16
6	Wolfsburg	6	4	1	1	+5	+0.2	13
7	Augsburg	7	3	3	1	+2	+1.4	12
8	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
9	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+1	+0.5	10
10	Heidenheim	6	3	1	2	+1	-5.0	10
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.4	10
12	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.5	9
13	Bochum	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.6	7
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-2	-1.2	7
15	Darmstadt	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.4	5
16	FC Koln	6	1	1	4	-4	-4.9	4
17	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-6	+0.8	4
18	Union Berlin	6	1	1	4	-8	-2.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+12	+11.9	16
2	Leverkusen	6	5	1	0	+11	+2.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+6	-0.5	16
4	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+5.3	12
5	Dortmund	6	2	3	1	+3	-4.0	9
6	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	3	2	+2	-1.5	9
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	+2	+2.0	9
8	Freiburg	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.4	7
9	M'gladbach	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
10	Bochum	8	1	3	4	-14	-10.4	6
11	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.8	5
12	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-10	-9.1	5
13	Mainz	7	0	4	3	-8	-4.3	4
14	Darmstadt	6	1	1	4	-14	-11.6	4
15	Union Berlin	6	1	0	5	-7	-1.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	7	1	0	6	-11	-2.8	3
17	Werder Bremen	6	0	1	5	-8	-6.7	1
18	Heidenheim	7	0	1	6	-11	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.