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League Cup

Referee: D Rock

Cambridge United

0–3

Full-time

Southampton

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cambridge United Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

1,0

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

5 Shots 18

0 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
4	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Peterborough	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
32	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Oxford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Oxford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
2	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Peterborough	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
38	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cambridge United Southampton

16′

⚽ C. Adams 0–1

L. Payne

Half-time 0–2

55′

⚽ C. Adams 0–2

A. May 🔁

↦ L. Simper

64′

H. Knibbs 🔁

↦ S. Smith

65′

S. Tracey 🔁

↦ S. Janneh

65′

66′

🔁 M. Djenepo

↦ A. Armstrong

66′

🔁 S. Mara

↦ C. Adams

66′

🔁 J. Aribo

↦ M. Elyounoussi

69′

🟨 Oriol Romeu

75′

🔁 D. Ballard

↦ L. Payne

F. Okenabirhie 🔁

↦ J. Lankester

79′

86′

🟨 Lyanco

88′

⚽ D. Ballard 0–3

90′

🔁 D. Edwards

↦ I. Diallo

92′

🟨 Moussa Djenepo

Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Cambridge United

4-2-3-1

W. Mannion G

2 G. Williams D

16 Z. Rossi D

L. Jones D

3 B. Haunstrup D

22 L. Simper M

4 P. Digby M

S. Smith M

14 J. Lankester M

17 S. Janneh M

9 J. Ironside F

Bench (8)

19 A. May

26 H. Knibbs

18 S. Tracey

20 F. Okenabirhie

27 B. Worman

1 D. Mitov

35 G. McConnell

8 L. O'Neil

Coach: M. Bonner

Southampton

4-2-3-1

1 A. McCarthy G

61 L. Payne D

J. Bednarek D

4 Lyanco D

43 Y. Valery D

6 Oriol Romeu M

27 I. Diallo M

M. Elyounoussi M

S. Armstrong M

A. Armstrong M

C. Adams F

Bench (9)

19 M. Djenepo

18 S. Mara

7 J. Aribo

53 D. Ballard

66 D. Edwards

45 R. Lavia

38 D. Simeu

22 M. Salisu

13 W. Caballero

Coach: R. Hasenhüttl

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

2. Aug LC 4 years ago

Referee

D Rock · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

3,0 / match

Average

⚽ Free kicks

23,7 / match

Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Match report

Line-ups

Cambridge United

Southampton

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee