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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Southampton

T T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Chelsea

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

4,0

1,7

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

3,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-2,7

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 43%

35%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

43%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

42%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

4 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 13. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	24	17	5	2	+34	56
2	Man United	24	13	7	4	+19	46
3	Leicester	24	14	4	6	+16	46
4	Chelsea	24	12	6	6	+16	42
5	West Ham	24	12	6	6	+9	42
6	Liverpool	24	11	7	6	+13	40
7	Everton	23	11	4	8	+2	37
8	Aston Villa	22	11	3	8	+12	36
9	Tottenham	23	10	6	7	+11	36
10	Arsenal	24	10	4	10	+6	34
11	Wolves	25	9	6	10	-6	33
12	Leeds	24	10	2	12	-3	32
13	Southampton	23	8	5	10	-9	29
14	Crystal Palace	24	8	5	11	-15	29
15	Burnley	24	7	6	11	-12	27
16	Brighton	24	5	11	8	-5	26
17	Newcastle	24	7	4	13	-15	25
18	Fulham	24	3	10	11	-12	19
19	West Brom	24	2	7	15	-36	13
20	Sheffield United	24	3	2	19	-25	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+18	29
2	Liverpool	12	7	2	3	+8	23
3	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+12	22
4	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Leicester	12	6	1	5	+3	19
6	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
7	Man United	12	5	3	4	+7	18
8	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Arsenal	12	5	3	4	+3	18
10	Aston Villa	10	5	1	4	+5	16
11	Southampton	12	5	1	6	+1	16
12	Burnley	12	4	3	5	-4	15
13	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Leeds	11	4	2	5	+0	14
15	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	14
16	Newcastle	12	4	2	6	-6	14
17	Brighton	12	1	7	4	-4	10
18	Sheffield United	12	2	1	9	-9	7
19	Fulham	12	1	4	7	-10	7
20	West Brom	12	1	4	7	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	12	8	4	0	+12	28
2	Man City	12	8	3	1	+16	27
3	Leicester	12	8	3	1	+13	27
4	Everton	11	7	2	2	+5	23
5	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+4	21
6	Aston Villa	12	6	2	4	+7	20
7	Chelsea	12	6	2	4	+4	20
8	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+7	18
9	Leeds	13	6	0	7	-3	18
10	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	+5	17
11	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
12	Brighton	12	4	4	4	-1	16
13	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-7	14
14	Crystal Palace	12	4	2	6	-8	14
15	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-10	13
16	Fulham	12	2	6	4	-2	12
17	Burnley	12	3	3	6	-8	12
18	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-9	11
19	West Brom	12	1	3	8	-12	6
20	Sheffield United	12	1	1	10	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.