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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Man City

S U S U S

5–1

Full-time

Watford

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,7

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 47%

75%

19%

Points per game

2,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 41%

34%

47%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

2,3

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

74% Possession 26%

21 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Watford 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	32	24	5	3	+55	77
2	Liverpool	32	23	7	2	+61	76
3	Chelsea	31	18	8	5	+39	62
4	Arsenal	33	19	3	11	+12	60
5	Tottenham	32	18	3	11	+18	57
6	Man United	34	15	9	10	+2	54
7	West Ham	33	15	7	11	+9	52
8	Wolves	32	15	4	13	+5	49
9	Leicester	31	11	8	12	-4	41
10	Brighton	33	9	13	11	-11	40
11	Newcastle	33	10	10	13	-18	40
12	Brentford	33	11	6	16	-8	39
13	Southampton	33	9	12	12	-16	39
14	Crystal Palace	32	8	13	11	+2	37
15	Aston Villa	31	11	3	17	-4	36
16	Leeds	32	8	9	15	-30	33
17	Everton	31	8	5	18	-19	29
18	Burnley	32	5	13	14	-17	28
19	Watford	32	6	4	22	-32	22
20	Norwich	32	5	6	21	-44	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+36	42
2	Man City	16	12	2	2	+33	38
3	Arsenal	17	11	2	4	+13	35
4	Tottenham	16	10	1	5	+13	31
5	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Man United	17	9	4	4	+7	31
7	Leicester	15	8	3	4	+6	27
8	Newcastle	17	7	6	4	-2	27
9	Chelsea	15	7	5	3	+13	26
10	Southampton	17	6	7	4	+1	25
11	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
12	Everton	16	7	2	7	+1	23
13	Crystal Palace	16	5	7	4	+8	22
14	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-1	20
15	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-1	18
16	Burnley	16	4	6	6	-5	18
17	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
18	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
19	Norwich	16	3	3	10	-19	12
20	Watford	16	2	1	13	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+26	36
3	Liverpool	16	10	4	2	+25	34
4	Tottenham	16	8	2	6	+5	26
5	Wolves	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Arsenal	16	8	1	7	-1	25
7	Brighton	17	6	7	4	-1	25
8	Man United	17	6	5	6	-5	23
9	West Ham	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Brentford	17	5	4	8	-7	19
11	Aston Villa	16	6	0	10	-3	18
12	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-18	16
13	Crystal Palace	16	3	6	7	-6	15
14	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
15	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-10	14
16	Southampton	16	3	5	8	-17	14
17	Newcastle	16	3	4	9	-16	13
18	Burnley	16	1	7	8	-12	10
19	Norwich	16	2	3	11	-25	9
20	Everton	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.