Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Serpa
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 6 |
| 2 |
São João Ver
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 6 |
| 3 |
Vianense
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 4 |
Montalegre
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 |
Sanjoanense
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 6 |
Varzim
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |
Oliveira Hospital
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |
Camacha
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 3 |
| 10 |
Pêro Pinheiro
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 3 |
| 11 |
Beira-Mar
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 3 |
| 12 |
Fafe
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 13 |
Leixoes
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 14 |
UD da Serra
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 15 |
Merelinense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 16 |
Valadares Gaia
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 17 |
Olhanense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 18 |
Felgueiras 1932
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 19 |
Dumiense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 20 |
Juventude Évora
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 21 |
Belenenses
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 22 |
Vilaverdense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 23 |
Moreirense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 24 |
CF Os Belenenses
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 25 |
Alverca
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 26 |
Canelas 2010
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 27 |
Fontinhas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 28 |
Ferreiras
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 29 |
Praiense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 30 |
Penafiel
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 31 |
Bragança
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 32 |
Resende
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 33 |
Oriental Dragon
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 34 |
Sertanense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 35 |
Oriental Lisboa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 36 |
Sintrense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 37 |
Tirsense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 38 |
Paredes
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 39 |
Farense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 40 |
Pevidem
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 41 |
Mafra
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 42 |
Os Marialvas
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 43 |
Gondomar
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 44 |
Arronches e Benfica
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 45 |
União de Leiria
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 46 |
União Santarém
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 47 |
Lajense
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 48 |
Lagos
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 49 |
Joane
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 50 |
Pombal
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 51 |
União de Tomar
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 52 |
Estrela
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 53 |
Recreativa de Lamelas
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 54 |
Lusitânia
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 55 |
Freamunde
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 56 |
São Roque (Açores)
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 57 |
Monção
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 58 |
Leça
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 59 |
1º Dezembro
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 60 |
Vila Meã
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 61 |
Rebordosa
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 62 |
Alcains
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 63 |
Madalena
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 64 |
Fazendense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 65 |
Amarante
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 66 |
Marinhense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 67 |
Gavionenses
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 68 |
Santa Eulália
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 69 |
Alpendorada
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 70 |
Lusitânia Lourosa
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 71 |
Feirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 72 |
Águeda
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 73 |
Atlético Arcos
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 74 |
Vila Cortez
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 75 |
Torreense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 76 |
UD Rio Maior
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 77 |
Comércio Indústria
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 78 |
Régua
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 79 |
Lusitano Évora 1911
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 80 |
Mosteirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 81 |
Culatrense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 82 |
Salgueiros
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 83 |
Atlético Reguengos
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 84 |
Mondinense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 85 |
Brito
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 86 |
Moncarapachense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 87 |
Lusitano FCV
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 88 |
Castrense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 89 |
Pedrógão São Pedro
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 90 |
Maria da Fonte
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 91 |
Vinhais
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 92 |
Ribeira Brava
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 93 |
Rebordelo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 94 |
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 95 |
AD Portomosense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 96 |
Mortágua
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 97 |
Sporting Mêda
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 98 |
Águias do Moradal
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 99 |
1º Maio Funchal
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
No matches played yet.
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.