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Championship

Referee: A Kitchen

Southampton

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 38/41 matches

Win Ø 46%

47%

44%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

49%

Both score Ø 67%

71%

63%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,73 xG 0,91

62% Possession 38%

15 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 4. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	42	25	10	7	+42	+31.9	85
2	Ipswich	40	21	12	7	+31	+28.9	75
3	Millwall	40	20	10	10	+9	+4.8	70
4	Southampton	38	18	11	9	+23	+17.1	65
5	Middlesbrough	38	18	11	9	+14	+22.9	65
6	Hull	38	19	8	11	+8	-20.3	65
7	Wrexham	41	17	13	11	+5	-5.7	64
8	Derby	41	18	9	14	+9	+2.8	63
9	Norwich	42	17	7	18	+5	-4.0	58
10	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	+1	-6.1	58
11	QPR	42	16	10	16	-5	-0.0	58
12	Watford	41	14	15	12	+3	+4.5	57
13	Stoke	41	15	9	17	+3	-11.3	54
14	Preston	41	13	15	13	-4	-15.7	54
15	Swansea	41	15	9	17	-5	-5.7	54
16	Birmingham	41	14	11	16	-3	+12.2	53
17	Sheffield United	41	15	6	20	-1	+13.4	51
18	Charlton	41	12	13	16	-11	-15.0	49
19	Leicester	41	11	14	16	-9	-12.9	47
20	Blackburn	41	12	11	18	-12	+4.6	47
21	West Brom	42	11	13	18	-14	+9.1	46
22	Portsmouth	40	10	12	18	-17	-0.0	42
23	Oxford	41	9	14	18	-15	-7.5	41
24	Sheffield Weds	42	1	11	30	-57	-47.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	15	4	2	+26	+22.1	49
2	Ipswich	21	13	7	1	+23	+24.9	46
3	Watford	21	10	7	4	+9	+5.5	37
4	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+6	-1.5	36
5	Millwall	20	11	3	6	+6	+6.6	36
6	Southampton	18	10	5	3	+15	+11.2	35
7	Birmingham	20	9	8	3	+13	+18.4	35
8	Hull	19	10	4	5	+5	-5.0	34
9	Middlesbrough	19	9	6	4	+8	+11.8	33
10	QPR	21	10	3	8	+5	+7.9	33
11	Derby	21	9	6	6	+4	+4.1	33
12	Wrexham	21	9	6	6	+2	+6.4	33
13	Stoke	20	9	5	6	+10	+2.5	32
14	Preston	21	8	7	6	+2	-3.0	31
15	West Brom	21	7	9	5	+0	+12.2	30
16	Sheffield United	20	8	4	8	+7	+13.8	28
17	Bristol City	21	8	4	9	+2	-3.7	28
18	Charlton	20	8	4	8	-2	-0.8	28
19	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-2	-1.3	26
20	Norwich	21	8	2	11	-2	-0.2	26
21	Portsmouth	20	6	5	9	-1	+6.6	23
22	Oxford	20	5	8	7	-7	+1.8	23
23	Blackburn	21	4	8	9	-7	+5.6	20
24	Sheffield Weds	21	0	6	15	-31	-21.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	10	6	5	+16	+9.8	36
2	Millwall	20	9	7	4	+3	-1.8	34
3	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+7	-3.8	32
4	Middlesbrough	19	9	5	5	+6	+11.1	32
5	Hull	19	9	4	6	+3	-15.3	31
6	Wrexham	20	8	7	5	+3	-12.0	31
7	Southampton	20	8	6	6	+8	+5.8	30
8	Derby	20	9	3	8	+5	-1.3	30
9	Bristol City	21	8	6	7	-1	-2.4	30
10	Ipswich	19	8	5	6	+8	+4.0	29
11	Blackburn	20	8	3	9	-5	-1.0	27
12	QPR	21	6	7	8	-10	-8.0	25
13	Preston	20	5	8	7	-6	-12.7	23
14	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-8	-0.4	23
15	Stoke	21	6	4	11	-7	-13.8	22
16	Leicester	21	4	9	8	-7	-11.6	21
17	Charlton	21	4	9	8	-9	-14.3	21
18	Watford	20	4	8	8	-6	-0.9	20
19	Portsmouth	20	4	7	9	-16	-6.7	19
20	Oxford	21	4	6	11	-8	-9.3	18
21	Swansea	20	5	3	12	-11	-4.2	18
22	Birmingham	21	5	3	13	-16	-6.2	18
23	West Brom	21	4	4	13	-14	-3.1	16
24	Sheffield Weds	21	1	5	15	-26	-26.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.