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Championship

Referee: S Allison

Derby

S S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Oxford

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Oxford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 42/42 matches

Win Ø 34%

43%

24%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,03 xG 0,67

67% Possession 33%

15 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 0

8 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Oxford 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	43	25	11	7	+42	+32.3	86
2	Ipswich	41	21	12	8	+29	+28.2	75
3	Southampton	40	20	11	9	+27	+19.8	71
4	Millwall	40	20	10	10	+9	+4.8	70
5	Middlesbrough	39	18	11	10	+13	+23.8	65
6	Hull	39	19	8	12	+7	-21.5	65
7	Wrexham	42	17	13	12	+3	-7.2	64
8	Derby	42	18	9	15	+8	+2.0	63
9	Norwich	42	17	7	18	+5	-4.0	58
10	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	+1	-6.1	58
11	QPR	42	16	10	16	-5	-0.0	58
12	Watford	42	14	15	13	+1	+3.5	57
13	Preston	42	14	15	13	-3	-15.8	57
14	Swansea	42	16	9	17	-4	-6.4	57
15	Birmingham	42	15	11	16	-1	+13.7	56
16	Stoke	42	15	10	17	+3	-10.2	55
17	Sheffield United	42	16	6	20	+0	+14.5	54
18	Charlton	42	12	13	17	-12	-15.0	49
19	Blackburn	44	12	13	19	-15	+1.2	49
20	Portsmouth	42	12	12	18	-14	-0.2	48
21	Leicester	42	11	14	17	-10	-12.2	47
22	West Brom	42	11	13	18	-14	+9.1	46
23	Oxford	42	10	14	18	-13	-6.5	44
24	Sheffield Weds	42	1	11	30	-57	-47.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	15	4	2	+26	+22.1	49
2	Ipswich	21	13	7	1	+23	+24.9	46
3	Southampton	20	12	5	3	+19	+14.0	41
4	Birmingham	21	10	8	3	+15	+19.9	38
5	Watford	21	10	7	4	+9	+5.5	37
6	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+6	-1.5	36
7	Millwall	20	11	3	6	+6	+6.6	36
8	Hull	19	10	4	5	+5	-5.0	34
9	Stoke	21	9	6	6	+10	+3.5	33
10	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+7	+12.7	33
11	QPR	21	10	3	8	+5	+7.9	33
12	Derby	21	9	6	6	+4	+4.1	33
13	Wrexham	21	9	6	6	+2	+6.4	33
14	Sheffield United	21	9	4	8	+8	+15.0	31
15	Preston	21	8	7	6	+2	-3.0	31
16	West Brom	21	7	9	5	+0	+12.2	30
17	Bristol City	21	8	4	9	+2	-3.7	28
18	Charlton	21	8	4	9	-3	-0.8	28
19	Portsmouth	21	7	5	9	+1	+7.3	26
20	Norwich	21	8	2	11	-2	-0.2	26
21	Leicester	21	7	5	9	-3	-0.7	26
22	Oxford	21	6	8	7	-5	+2.8	26
23	Blackburn	22	4	9	9	-7	+5.2	21
24	Sheffield Weds	21	0	6	15	-31	-21.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	22	10	7	5	+16	+10.3	37
2	Millwall	20	9	7	4	+3	-1.8	34
3	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+7	-3.8	32
4	Middlesbrough	19	9	5	5	+6	+11.1	32
5	Hull	20	9	4	7	+2	-16.4	31
6	Wrexham	21	8	7	6	+1	-13.5	31
7	Southampton	20	8	6	6	+8	+5.8	30
8	Derby	21	9	3	9	+4	-2.1	30
9	Bristol City	21	8	6	7	-1	-2.4	30
10	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	+6	+3.3	29
11	Blackburn	22	8	4	10	-8	-4.0	28
12	Preston	21	6	8	7	-5	-12.7	26
13	QPR	21	6	7	8	-10	-8.0	25
14	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-8	-0.4	23
15	Stoke	21	6	4	11	-7	-13.8	22
16	Portsmouth	21	5	7	9	-15	-7.5	22
17	Leicester	21	4	9	8	-7	-11.6	21
18	Charlton	21	4	9	8	-9	-14.3	21
19	Swansea	21	6	3	12	-10	-4.9	21
20	Watford	21	4	8	9	-8	-2.0	20
21	Oxford	21	4	6	11	-8	-9.3	18
22	Birmingham	21	5	3	13	-16	-6.2	18
23	West Brom	21	4	4	13	-14	-3.1	16
24	Sheffield Weds	21	1	5	15	-26	-26.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.