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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Luton

T T U T S

1–2

Full-time

Burnley

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,34 xG 1,11

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 6

3 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 17. · Burnley 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+12	+9.7	18
2	Tottenham	7	5	2	0	+9	+2.8	17
3	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+9	+8.7	17
4	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+9	+5.3	16
5	Aston Villa	7	5	0	2	+7	+2.5	15
6	Brighton	7	5	0	2	+5	+2.5	15
7	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+3	-3.2	13
8	Newcastle	7	4	0	3	+11	+8.3	12
9	Crystal Palace	7	3	2	2	+0	-1.6	11
10	Man United	7	3	0	4	-4	+0.0	9
11	Chelsea	7	2	2	3	+1	+5.8	8
12	Nott'm Forest	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.3	8
13	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-7	-8.6	8
14	Brentford	7	1	4	2	+0	+4.8	7
15	Wolves	7	2	1	4	-5	-5.0	7
16	Everton	7	1	1	5	-6	+2.7	4
17	Luton	6	1	1	4	-7	-4.2	4
18	Bournemouth	7	0	3	4	-10	-8.0	3
19	Burnley	6	0	1	5	-11	-7.2	1
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-14	-12.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+11	+4.3	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.5	9
3	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.9	9
4	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+6	+6.2	9
5	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.6	9
6	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.0	9
7	Arsenal	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.2	8
8	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.3	6
9	Man United	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.1	6
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
11	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.7	4
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
13	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.1	3
14	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.4	3
15	Fulham	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.2	3
16	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.7	2
17	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.0	1
18	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-10	-8.7	1
19	Everton	4	0	0	4	-4	+2.8	0
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.5	9
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+5	+7.8	9
3	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	+0.8	8
4	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.2	7
5	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
6	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.2	7
7	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.0	6
8	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.7	6
9	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
10	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.7	4
11	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.1	4
12	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
13	Everton	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.1	4
14	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+5	+2.1	3
15	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.1	3
16	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.1	3
17	Luton	4	1	0	3	-6	-6.2	3
18	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
19	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.3	1
20	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.