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Championship

Referee: E Bell

Derby

S T S S T

2–0

Full-time

Stoke

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 41%

43%

38%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

45%

Both score Ø 54%

65%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,39 xG 0,30

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 0

9 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Stoke 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	40	25	8	7	+42	+30.5	83
2	Ipswich	38	19	12	7	+28	+26.4	69
3	Millwall	39	20	9	10	+9	+5.0	69
4	Middlesbrough	37	18	10	9	+14	+21.9	64
5	Wrexham	40	17	13	10	+9	-4.3	64
6	Hull	37	19	7	11	+8	-20.6	64
7	Southampton	37	17	11	9	+19	+15.7	62
8	Derby	40	17	9	14	+7	+0.7	60
9	Norwich	41	17	7	17	+7	-2.9	58
10	Watford	40	14	14	12	+3	+5.4	56
11	QPR	40	16	8	16	-5	-0.3	56
12	Stoke	40	15	9	16	+5	-9.2	54
13	Bristol City	40	15	9	16	+0	-5.1	54
14	Birmingham	40	14	11	15	-2	+13.6	53
15	Preston	40	13	14	13	-4	-15.3	53
16	Swansea	40	15	8	17	-5	-4.7	53
17	Sheffield United	40	15	6	19	+0	+12.1	51
18	Charlton	40	12	12	16	-11	-15.9	48
19	Leicester	40	11	13	16	-9	-14.3	46
20	Blackburn	40	12	10	18	-12	+4.5	46
21	West Brom	40	11	11	18	-14	+9.0	44
22	Portsmouth	40	10	12	18	-17	-0.0	42
23	Oxford	41	9	14	18	-15	-7.5	41
24	Sheffield Weds	40	1	9	30	-57	-44.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	15	3	2	+26	+20.4	48
2	Ipswich	20	12	7	1	+22	+23.5	43
3	Watford	20	10	6	4	+9	+6.3	36
4	Millwall	20	11	3	6	+6	+6.6	36
5	Southampton	18	10	5	3	+15	+11.2	35
6	Birmingham	20	9	8	3	+13	+18.4	35
7	Swansea	20	10	5	5	+6	-0.5	35
8	Middlesbrough	19	9	6	4	+8	+11.8	33
9	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
10	Hull	18	10	3	5	+5	-5.3	33
11	Stoke	20	9	5	6	+10	+2.5	32
12	QPR	20	10	2	8	+5	+8.2	32
13	Derby	20	8	6	6	+2	+2.0	30
14	Preston	20	8	6	6	+2	-2.6	30
15	West Brom	20	7	8	5	+0	+12.0	29
16	Sheffield United	20	8	4	8	+7	+13.8	28
17	Charlton	20	8	4	8	-2	-0.8	28
18	Norwich	20	8	2	10	+0	+0.9	26
19	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-2	-1.3	26
20	Bristol City	20	7	4	9	+1	-2.4	25
21	Portsmouth	20	6	5	9	-1	+6.6	23
22	Oxford	20	5	8	7	-7	+1.8	23
23	Blackburn	20	4	7	9	-7	+5.5	19
24	Sheffield Weds	20	0	5	15	-31	-20.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	10	5	5	+16	+10.1	35
2	Millwall	19	9	6	4	+3	-1.5	33
3	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+7	-3.8	32
4	Middlesbrough	18	9	4	5	+6	+10.1	31
5	Hull	19	9	4	6	+3	-15.3	31
6	Wrexham	20	8	7	5	+3	-12.0	31
7	Derby	20	9	3	8	+5	-1.3	30
8	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-1	-2.7	29
9	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
10	Blackburn	20	8	3	9	-5	-1.0	27
11	Ipswich	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.9	26
12	QPR	20	6	6	8	-10	-8.4	24
13	Preston	20	5	8	7	-6	-12.7	23
14	Sheffield United	20	7	2	11	-7	-1.7	23
15	Stoke	20	6	4	10	-5	-11.7	22
16	Watford	20	4	8	8	-6	-0.9	20
17	Leicester	20	4	8	8	-7	-13.0	20
18	Charlton	20	4	8	8	-9	-15.1	20
19	Portsmouth	20	4	7	9	-16	-6.7	19
20	Oxford	21	4	6	11	-8	-9.3	18
21	Swansea	20	5	3	12	-11	-4.2	18
22	Birmingham	20	5	3	12	-15	-4.7	18
23	West Brom	20	4	3	13	-14	-2.9	15
24	Sheffield Weds	20	1	4	15	-26	-24.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.