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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Lecce

T T S T T

0–3

Full-time

Atalanta

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 33%

23%

43%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

37%

Both score Ø 45%

37%

53%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,44 xG 2,78

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 16

0 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 17. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	31	23	3	5	+45	+34.5	72
2	Milan	30	18	9	3	+24	+16.9	63
3	Napoli	30	19	5	6	+16	+10.5	62
4	Como	31	16	10	5	+31	+21.5	58
5	Juventus	30	15	9	6	+23	+29.3	54
6	Roma	31	17	3	11	+14	+6.4	54
7	Atalanta	30	13	11	6	+14	+11.4	50
8	Bologna	31	13	6	12	+3	-0.2	45
9	Lazio	31	11	11	9	+3	-6.8	44
10	Sassuolo	31	12	6	13	-3	-14.3	42
11	Udinese	31	11	7	13	-7	-10.0	40
12	Torino	31	10	6	15	-18	-6.8	36
13	Parma	31	8	11	12	-17	-17.9	35
14	Genoa	30	8	9	13	-6	+0.7	33
15	Fiorentina	31	7	11	13	-8	+6.2	32
16	Cagliari	31	7	9	15	-12	-15.2	30
17	Lecce	30	7	6	17	-19	-19.7	27
18	Cremonese	31	6	9	16	-20	-18.9	27
19	Verona	31	3	9	19	-31	-8.4	18
20	Pisa	31	2	12	17	-32	-19.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	2	2	+29	+22.5	38
2	Napoli	14	10	4	0	+12	+1.5	34
3	Como	16	9	5	2	+20	+16.6	32
4	Roma	15	10	2	3	+14	+9.5	32
5	Atalanta	16	9	5	2	+12	+14.1	32
6	Milan	15	9	4	2	+9	+9.9	31
7	Juventus	15	8	6	1	+17	+18.3	30
8	Lazio	16	7	5	4	+4	+0.6	26
9	Sassuolo	16	7	2	7	-3	-9.1	23
10	Udinese	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.1	20
11	Torino	15	6	2	7	-4	-4.2	20
12	Genoa	16	5	4	7	-2	+3.3	19
13	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-4	+2.3	17
14	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-2	-6.3	16
15	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-3.5	16
16	Fiorentina	15	3	6	6	-1	+9.6	15
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-10	-8.2	14
18	Cremonese	15	2	6	7	-10	-4.2	12
19	Pisa	16	2	4	10	-12	-5.6	10
20	Verona	15	1	4	10	-12	-2.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	1	3	+16	+12.1	34
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+15	+7.0	32
3	Bologna	16	8	4	4	+7	-2.5	28
4	Napoli	16	9	1	6	+4	+9.0	28
5	Como	15	7	5	3	+11	+4.9	26
6	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+6	+10.9	24
7	Roma	16	7	1	8	+0	-3.1	22
8	Parma	16	5	6	5	-7	-9.8	21
9	Udinese	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
10	Sassuolo	15	5	4	6	+0	-5.2	19
11	Atalanta	14	4	6	4	+2	-2.7	18
12	Lazio	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.4	18
13	Fiorentina	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Torino	16	4	4	8	-14	-2.6	16
15	Cremonese	16	4	3	9	-10	-14.7	15
16	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.5	14
17	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-10	-8.9	14
18	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-11	-16.2	11
19	Verona	16	2	5	9	-19	-6.4	11
20	Pisa	15	0	8	7	-20	-13.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.