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Primeira Liga

Referee: A Nobre

Arouca

S T T T S

3–2

Full-time

Estoril

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 34%

30%

37%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 54%

52%

56%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,98 xG 1,12

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 12. · Estoril 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	28	23	4	1	+43	+32.2	73
2	Sp Lisbon	27	21	5	1	+55	+38.6	68
3	Benfica	27	19	8	0	+41	+30.1	65
4	Sp Braga	27	14	7	6	+27	+23.1	49
5	Famalicao	28	13	7	8	+11	+9.5	46
6	Gil Vicente	28	12	9	7	+14	+9.9	45
7	Estoril	27	10	7	10	+4	-6.0	37
8	Guimaraes	28	10	5	13	-8	-4.8	35
9	Moreirense	28	10	5	13	-9	-15.0	35
10	Alverca	28	8	8	12	-17	-2.3	32
11	Rio Ave	28	7	9	12	-19	-16.7	30
12	Arouca	27	8	5	14	-21	-19.0	29
13	Santa Clara	28	7	7	14	-9	-1.8	28
14	Estrela	28	6	10	12	-14	-10.1	28
15	Nacional	28	6	7	15	-8	-9.5	25
16	Casa Pia	26	5	9	12	-22	-22.8	24
17	Tondela	27	4	8	15	-25	-10.3	20
18	AVS	28	1	8	19	-43	-25.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	14	11	3	0	+23	+18.6	36
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+34	+24.4	34
3	Benfica	14	9	5	0	+23	+19.3	32
4	Gil Vicente	14	8	3	3	+13	+6.2	27
5	Famalicao	14	8	2	4	+14	+8.3	26
6	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+6	-1.0	25
7	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+15	+13.1	24
8	Estoril	14	6	5	3	+8	-2.5	23
9	Moreirense	14	6	2	6	-3	-7.6	20
10	Alverca	14	5	4	5	-8	+4.8	19
11	Estrela	14	4	5	5	-1	+2.2	17
12	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-1	+1.3	17
13	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-7	-6.5	15
14	Nacional	14	4	2	8	-2	-4.4	14
15	Rio Ave	14	3	4	7	-9	-3.8	13
16	Casa Pia	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.2	12
17	Tondela	14	1	6	7	-8	-4.9	9
18	AVS	14	1	4	9	-14	-9.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	1	1	+20	+13.6	37
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	4	0	+21	+14.1	34
3	Benfica	13	10	3	0	+18	+10.7	33
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+12	+9.9	25
5	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-3	+1.2	20
6	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+1	+3.7	18
7	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-10	-12.8	17
8	Moreirense	14	4	3	7	-6	-7.4	15
9	Estoril	13	4	2	7	-4	-3.4	14
10	Arouca	14	4	2	8	-14	-12.5	14
11	Alverca	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.1	13
12	Casa Pia	14	3	3	8	-16	-12.5	12
13	Nacional	14	2	5	7	-6	-5.1	11
14	Santa Clara	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.1	11
15	Estrela	14	2	5	7	-13	-12.4	11
16	Tondela	13	3	2	8	-17	-5.4	11
17	Guimaraes	13	3	1	9	-14	-3.8	10
18	AVS	14	0	4	10	-29	-15.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.