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Serie B

Referee: G Manganiello

Carrarese

U T U S S

3–1

Full-time

Spezia

U S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carrarese Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 25%

28%

22%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

41%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,61 xG 1,44

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 23

1 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 3

The table before the match Carrarese 9. · Spezia 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	33	21	8	4	+39	+31.2	71
2	Frosinone	33	19	11	3	+32	+10.0	68
3	Monza	33	19	9	5	+24	+14.1	66
4	Palermo	33	18	10	5	+27	+10.9	64
5	Catanzaro	32	14	11	7	+11	+1.4	53
6	Modena	32	14	8	10	+15	+8.5	50
7	Juve Stabia	33	10	15	8	-2	+0.2	45
8	Cesena	33	12	8	13	-6	+3.8	44
9	Carrarese	32	9	12	11	-1	-6.9	39
10	Sudtirol	33	8	15	10	-1	-3.7	39
11	Avellino	33	10	9	14	-16	-15.6	39
12	Mantova	33	10	7	16	-11	+1.4	37
13	Sampdoria	33	9	10	14	-11	-2.1	37
14	Empoli	33	8	12	13	-5	+2.9	36
15	Padova	33	8	10	15	-13	-11.4	34
16	Virtus Entella	33	8	10	15	-15	-10.0	34
17	Bari	33	8	10	15	-18	-18.0	34
18	Pescara	33	7	11	15	-13	-2.8	32
19	Spezia	32	7	9	16	-15	-3.9	30
20	Reggiana	33	7	9	17	-21	-9.9	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	17	15	0	2	+28	+18.5	45
2	Palermo	17	12	4	1	+23	+8.7	40
3	Monza	16	12	3	1	+19	+10.8	39
4	Frosinone	16	10	4	2	+19	+8.5	34
5	Catanzaro	16	8	7	1	+10	+2.6	31
6	Juve Stabia	16	7	8	1	+9	+5.8	29
7	Sampdoria	17	8	5	4	+4	+3.3	29
8	Modena	17	8	4	5	+11	+1.3	28
9	Virtus Entella	16	7	6	3	+7	-1.7	27
10	Mantova	17	8	3	6	+0	+4.5	27
11	Avellino	16	7	4	5	-2	-6.2	25
12	Carrarese	16	6	6	4	+7	+3.1	24
13	Cesena	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.4	23
14	Bari	17	6	5	6	-1	-7.2	23
15	Empoli	17	4	10	3	+6	+8.0	22
16	Pescara	16	5	5	6	+3	-0.8	20
17	Sudtirol	16	5	5	6	+1	-3.6	20
18	Reggiana	16	4	6	6	-5	-4.3	18
19	Spezia	16	4	5	7	-6	-0.6	17
20	Padova	16	3	7	6	-4	-4.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	17	9	7	1	+13	+1.5	34
2	Monza	17	7	6	4	+5	+3.3	27
3	Venezia	16	6	8	2	+11	+12.7	26
4	Palermo	16	6	6	4	+4	+2.2	24
5	Modena	15	6	4	5	+4	+7.2	22
6	Catanzaro	16	6	4	6	+1	-1.2	22
7	Cesena	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	17	3	10	4	-2	-0.1	19
9	Padova	17	5	3	9	-9	-6.9	18
10	Juve Stabia	17	3	7	7	-11	-5.6	16
11	Carrarese	16	3	6	7	-8	-9.9	15
12	Empoli	16	4	2	10	-11	-5.1	14
13	Avellino	17	3	5	9	-14	-9.4	14
14	Spezia	16	3	4	9	-9	-3.3	13
15	Pescara	17	2	6	9	-16	-2.0	12
16	Reggiana	17	3	3	11	-16	-5.7	12
17	Bari	16	2	5	9	-17	-10.8	11
18	Mantova	16	2	4	10	-11	-3.1	10
19	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-15	-5.3	8
20	Virtus Entella	17	1	4	12	-22	-8.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.