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Serie B

Referee: A Arena

Bari

S T S T T

3–1

Full-time

Modena

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bari Modena

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 34%

22%

45%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

53%

48%

Both score Ø 51%

56%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,22 xG 1,31

38% Possession 62%

12 Shots 19

8 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

2 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bari 17. · Modena 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	32	20	8	4	+37	+29.5	68
2	Frosinone	33	19	11	3	+32	+10.0	68
3	Monza	32	19	8	5	+24	+14.0	65
4	Palermo	33	18	10	5	+27	+10.9	64
5	Catanzaro	31	14	10	7	+11	+1.5	52
6	Modena	31	14	8	9	+17	+9.4	50
7	Juve Stabia	32	10	15	7	+0	+1.9	45
8	Cesena	33	12	8	13	-6	+3.8	44
9	Carrarese	32	9	12	11	-1	-6.9	39
10	Sudtirol	33	8	15	10	-1	-3.7	39
11	Avellino	33	10	9	14	-16	-15.6	39
12	Empoli	32	8	12	12	-4	+3.7	36
13	Mantova	32	9	7	16	-12	+0.5	34
14	Sampdoria	32	8	10	14	-12	-2.9	34
15	Padova	33	8	10	15	-13	-11.4	34
16	Virtus Entella	32	8	10	14	-14	-9.2	34
17	Bari	32	7	10	15	-20	-18.9	31
18	Spezia	32	7	9	16	-15	-3.9	30
19	Reggiana	32	7	9	16	-19	-8.3	30
20	Pescara	32	6	11	15	-15	-4.5	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	16	14	0	2	+26	+16.8	42
2	Palermo	17	12	4	1	+23	+8.7	40
3	Monza	16	12	3	1	+19	+10.8	39
4	Frosinone	16	10	4	2	+19	+8.5	34
5	Catanzaro	15	8	6	1	+10	+2.7	30
6	Juve Stabia	16	7	8	1	+9	+5.8	29
7	Modena	17	8	4	5	+11	+1.3	28
8	Virtus Entella	16	7	6	3	+7	-1.7	27
9	Sampdoria	16	7	5	4	+3	+2.5	26
10	Avellino	16	7	4	5	-2	-6.2	25
11	Carrarese	16	6	6	4	+7	+3.1	24
12	Mantova	16	7	3	6	-1	+3.6	24
13	Cesena	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.4	23
14	Empoli	17	4	10	3	+6	+8.0	22
15	Pescara	16	5	5	6	+3	-0.8	20
16	Sudtirol	16	5	5	6	+1	-3.6	20
17	Bari	16	5	5	6	-3	-8.1	20
18	Reggiana	15	4	6	5	-3	-2.6	18
19	Spezia	16	4	5	7	-6	-0.6	17
20	Padova	16	3	7	6	-4	-4.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	17	9	7	1	+13	+1.5	34
2	Venezia	16	6	8	2	+11	+12.7	26
3	Monza	16	7	5	4	+5	+3.2	26
4	Palermo	16	6	6	4	+4	+2.2	24
5	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
6	Catanzaro	16	6	4	6	+1	-1.2	22
7	Cesena	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	17	3	10	4	-2	-0.1	19
9	Padova	17	5	3	9	-9	-6.9	18
10	Juve Stabia	16	3	7	6	-9	-3.9	16
11	Carrarese	16	3	6	7	-8	-9.9	15
12	Empoli	15	4	2	9	-10	-4.3	14
13	Avellino	17	3	5	9	-14	-9.4	14
14	Spezia	16	3	4	9	-9	-3.3	13
15	Reggiana	17	3	3	11	-16	-5.7	12
16	Bari	16	2	5	9	-17	-10.8	11
17	Mantova	16	2	4	10	-11	-3.1	10
18	Pescara	16	1	6	9	-18	-3.7	9
19	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-15	-5.3	8
20	Virtus Entella	16	1	4	11	-21	-7.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.