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Ligue 2
Referee: M Lesage
Le Mans
U U S S S
4–0
Full-time
Pau FC
T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Mans Pau FC
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,0
Scored
2,3
1,2
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,7
This season — Ligue 2 · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 41%
46%
36%
Points per game
1,8
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
39%
64%
Both score Ø 54%
54%
54%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,0
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%
16 Shots 5
9 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 3
3 Offside 2
20 Free kicks against 4
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Le Mans 3. · Pau FC 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Troyes 29 17 7 5 +21 58
2 St Etienne 29 16 6 7 +21 54
3 Le Mans 28 13 11 4 +12 50
4 Reims 29 12 11 6 +15 47
5 Red Star 28 12 9 7 +5 45
6 Rodez 29 11 12 6 +2 45
7 Montpellier 29 12 7 10 +8 43
8 Annecy 29 12 6 11 +2 42
9 Dunkerque 29 10 10 9 +9 40
10 Guingamp 29 10 9 10 -3 39
11 Pau FC 28 10 9 9 -4 39
12 Boulogne 29 9 8 12 -8 35
13 Grenoble 29 6 13 10 -7 31
14 Clermont 29 7 8 14 -7 29
15 Nancy 29 7 8 14 -16 29
16 Amiens 29 6 6 17 -17 24
17 Laval 29 4 12 13 -17 24
18 Bastia 28 3 12 13 -16 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Nov -25 Pau FC – Le Mans 1–2

Match report

Le Mans Pau FC
1–0 D. Gueye
M. Robin
26′
38′
🟨 Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa
38′
🟨 Julien Anziani
2–0 D. Gueye
40′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 N. Glossoa
↦ T. Pouilly
58′
🟨 Rayan Touzghar
A. Bourabaa 🔁
↦ M. Robin
61′
A. Rabillard 🔁
↦ D. Gueye
61′
Isaac Cossier 🟨
62′
66′
🔁 O. Sadik
↦ J. Anziani
H. Voyer 🔁
↦ I. Cossier
69′
A. Lauray 🔁
↦ E. Quarshie
69′
76′
🔁 A. Bobichon
↦ Kante
76′
🔁 C. Fall
↦ R. Touzghar
3–0 L. Bretelle
78′
A. Ribelin 🔁
↦ L. Calodat
79′
82′
🔁 K. Gasnier
↦ K. Dong
4–0 A. Rabillard
83′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Le Mans

3-1-4-2
98 N. Kocik G
31 N. Boisse D
17 S. Yohou D
3 I. Cossier D
29 L. Bretelle
18 L. Buades M
24 M. Robin M
6 E. Quarshie M
22 L. Calodat M
25 D. Gueye F
28 E. Colas F
Bench (7)
1 E. Hatfout
12 A. Ribelin
20 W. Harhouz
11 A. Bourabaa
9 A. Rabillard
5 H. Voyer
8 A. Lauray

Coach: Patrick Videira

Pau FC

5-3-2
30 E. Salles G
2 T. Pouilly D
97 D. Meddah D
19 Kante D
25 J. Ruiz D
3 J. Kalulu D
84 R. Touzghar M
21 S. Beusnard M
20 J. Anziani M
10 G. Versini F
9 K. Dong F
Bench (7)
22 N. Raveyre
14 A. Bobichon
11 K. Gasnier
26 N. Glossoa
18 O. Sadik
8 S. Basse
6 C. Fall

Coach: Thierry Debes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,94
U
3,44
B
3,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,79
U2,5
1,94
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Lesage · 143 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.