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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Derby

T S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 22%

40%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

51%

57%

Both score Ø 56%

69%

43%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,5

0,6

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,47 xG 0,73

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Sheffield Weds 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	35	21	8	6	+34	+26.6	71
2	Ipswich	34	18	9	7	+26	+24.5	63
3	Millwall	34	18	8	8	+9	+8.8	62
4	Middlesbrough	32	17	8	7	+12	+11.6	59
5	Wrexham	35	15	12	8	+9	-1.3	57
6	Hull	33	17	6	10	+8	-18.3	57
7	Southampton	33	14	10	9	+15	+16.5	52
8	Derby	35	14	9	12	+6	-1.5	51
9	Watford	35	13	12	10	+4	+7.2	51
10	Bristol City	35	14	8	13	+4	-1.9	50
11	Birmingham	35	13	10	12	+0	+14.3	49
12	Preston	36	12	13	11	-1	-13.2	49
13	Sheffield United	35	15	3	17	+2	+12.5	48
14	Stoke	35	13	8	14	+5	-10.4	47
15	QPR	35	13	8	14	-8	+0.8	47
16	Swansea	35	13	7	15	-3	-4.5	46
17	Norwich	35	13	6	16	+3	-4.3	45
18	Charlton	35	10	11	14	-11	-13.1	41
19	Leicester	35	10	10	15	-9	-15.1	40
20	Portsmouth	35	10	10	15	-10	-0.5	40
21	Blackburn	36	10	9	17	-13	+4.8	39
22	Oxford	36	8	11	17	-14	-10.9	35
23	West Brom	35	9	8	18	-18	+4.6	35
24	Sheffield Weds	35	1	8	26	-50	-37.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	17	13	3	1	+23	+16.8	42
2	Ipswich	18	12	5	1	+22	+22.0	41
3	Millwall	17	10	3	4	+7	+8.3	33
4	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+10	+5.8	32
5	Watford	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.6	32
6	Swansea	18	9	5	4	+7	+0.3	32
7	Birmingham	17	8	7	2	+13	+17.7	31
8	Wrexham	18	8	6	4	+5	+8.1	30
9	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
10	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+12	+10.9	29
11	Preston	19	7	6	6	+0	-4.4	27
12	Sheffield United	17	8	2	7	+8	+13.3	26
13	QPR	17	8	2	7	+3	+9.2	26
14	Stoke	17	7	4	6	+6	-0.4	25
15	Bristol City	18	7	4	7	+4	-0.5	25
16	Charlton	17	7	4	6	-1	-0.1	25
17	Derby	18	6	6	6	+0	-0.7	24
18	West Brom	17	6	6	5	-3	+9.6	24
19	Portsmouth	17	6	4	7	+1	+6.1	22
20	Leicester	17	6	4	7	-2	-1.9	22
21	Norwich	17	6	1	10	-3	+1.2	19
22	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-7	+6.7	18
23	Oxford	17	4	6	7	-8	-1.9	18
24	Sheffield Weds	18	0	4	14	-29	-17.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	18	8	5	5	+11	+9.8	29
2	Millwall	17	8	5	4	+2	+0.5	29
3	Derby	17	8	3	6	+6	-0.8	27
4	Hull	16	8	3	5	+5	-11.1	27
5	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	+4	-9.3	27
6	Middlesbrough	16	8	3	5	+2	+5.7	27
7	Norwich	18	7	5	6	+6	-5.5	26
8	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+0	-1.3	25
9	Southampton	17	6	5	6	+3	+5.6	23
10	Ipswich	16	6	4	6	+4	+2.5	22
11	Preston	17	5	7	5	-1	-8.8	22
12	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-1	-9.9	22
13	Sheffield United	18	7	1	10	-6	-0.8	22
14	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-6	-1.9	21
15	QPR	18	5	6	7	-11	-8.4	21
16	Watford	17	4	7	6	-3	+0.5	19
17	Leicester	18	4	6	8	-7	-13.2	18
18	Portsmouth	18	4	6	8	-11	-6.7	18
19	Birmingham	18	5	3	10	-13	-3.3	18
20	Oxford	19	4	5	10	-6	-9.0	17
21	Charlton	18	3	7	8	-10	-13.0	16
22	Swansea	17	4	2	11	-10	-4.8	14
23	West Brom	18	3	2	13	-15	-5.0	11
24	Sheffield Weds	17	1	4	12	-21	-19.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.