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Serie B
Referee: F Dionisi
Mantova
T S U S T
1–0
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mantova Virtus Entella
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie B · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 27%
28%
25%
Points per game
1,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
53%
41%
Both score Ø 55%
56%
53%
Average goals
2,6
2,4
Scored
1,1
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,68 xG 0,83
55% Possession 45%
12 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 2
3 Offside 2
18 Free kicks against 15
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mantova 13. · Virtus Entella 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Venezia 32 20 8 4 +37 +29.5 68
2 Frosinone 33 19 11 3 +32 +10.0 68
3 Monza 32 19 8 5 +24 +14.0 65
4 Palermo 33 18 10 5 +27 +10.9 64
5 Catanzaro 31 14 10 7 +11 +1.5 52
6 Modena 31 14 8 9 +17 +9.4 50
7 Juve Stabia 32 10 15 7 +0 +1.9 45
8 Cesena 33 12 8 13 -6 +3.8 44
9 Carrarese 32 9 12 11 -1 -6.9 39
10 Sudtirol 33 8 15 10 -1 -3.7 39
11 Avellino 33 10 9 14 -16 -15.6 39
12 Empoli 32 8 12 12 -4 +3.7 36
13 Mantova 32 9 7 16 -12 +0.5 34
14 Sampdoria 32 8 10 14 -12 -2.9 34
15 Padova 33 8 10 15 -13 -11.4 34
16 Virtus Entella 32 8 10 14 -14 -9.2 34
17 Bari 32 7 10 15 -20 -18.9 31
18 Spezia 32 7 9 16 -15 -3.9 30
19 Reggiana 32 7 9 16 -19 -8.3 30
20 Pescara 32 6 11 15 -15 -4.5 29

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mantova Virtus Entella
D. Mensah 🔁
↦ L. Mancuso
20′
Half-time 0–0
49′
🟨 Ivan Marconi
F. Ruocco 🔁
↦ N. Buso
54′
57′
🔁 B. Guiu
↦ L. Cuppone
57′
🔁 M. Alborghetti
↦ I. Marconi
Ali Dembélé 🟨
58′
61′
🟨 Andrea Tiritiello
69′
🔁 A. Debenedetti
↦ M. Tirelli
70′
🔁 F. Mezzoni
↦ D. Bariti
T. Marras 🔁
↦ D. Bragantini
76′
F. Paoletti 🔁
↦ D. Wieser
76′
77′
🔁 M. Dalla Vecchia
↦ N. Karic
Nicolò Radaelli 🟨
81′
83′
🟨 Niccolo Squizzato
1–0 T. Marras
84′
Tommaso Marras 🟨
85′
Flavio Paoletti 🟨
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Mantova

3-4-2-1
24 F. Bardi G
3 A. Dembele D
29 S. Cella D
96 T. Maggioni D
17 N. Radaelli M
21 S. Trimboli M
10 D. Wieser M
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia M
30 D. Bragantini F
77 N. Buso F
9 L. Mancuso F
Bench (12)
22 L. Andrenacci
34 A. Vukovic
18 C. Falletti
7 D. Mensah
98 F. Zuccon
19 F. Ruocco
20 J. Ligue
23 T. Marras
5 K. Chrysopoulos
36 F. Paoletti
28 M. Caprini
33 C. Marai

Coach: Francesco Modesto

Virtus Entella

3-5-2
22 F. Del Frate G
23 L. Parodi D
6 A. Tiritiello D
15 I. Marconi D
7 D. Bariti M
24 A. Franzoni M
5 N. Squizzato M
8 N. Karic M
26 S. Di Mario M
10 L. Cuppone F
17 M. Tirelli
Bench (12)
99 O. Siaulys
4 M. Nichetti
77 A. Boccadamo
94 F. Mezzoni
46 R. Turicchia
9 D. P. Stabile
27 M. Dalla Vecchia
38 A. Pilati
11 B. Guiu
3 M. Alborghetti
57 T. Del Lungo
19 A. Debenedetti

Coach: Andrea Chiappella

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,89
U
3,28
B
3,84
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,96
U2,5 ✓
1,76
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F Dionisi · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
29,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.