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Championship

Referee: T Nield

Coventry

S S S T S

3–2

Full-time

Derby

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Coventry Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 39/39 matches

Win Ø 53%

62%

44%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

64%

49%

Both score Ø 62%

59%

64%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,57 xG 2,18

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Coventry 1. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	39	24	8	7	+41	+31.1	80
2	Ipswich	38	19	12	7	+28	+26.4	69
3	Millwall	38	20	9	9	+10	+6.2	69
4	Middlesbrough	37	18	10	9	+14	+21.9	64
5	Wrexham	40	17	13	10	+9	-4.3	64
6	Hull	37	19	7	11	+8	-20.6	64
7	Southampton	37	17	11	9	+19	+15.7	62
8	Derby	39	17	9	13	+8	+0.1	60
9	Watford	40	14	14	12	+3	+5.4	56
10	QPR	40	16	8	16	-5	-0.3	56
11	Norwich	40	16	7	17	+6	-4.1	55
12	Stoke	40	15	9	16	+5	-9.2	54
13	Bristol City	40	15	9	16	+0	-5.1	54
14	Birmingham	40	14	11	15	-2	+13.6	53
15	Preston	40	13	14	13	-4	-15.3	53
16	Swansea	40	15	8	17	-5	-4.7	53
17	Sheffield United	40	15	6	19	+0	+12.1	51
18	Charlton	40	12	12	16	-11	-15.9	48
19	Leicester	40	11	13	16	-9	-14.3	46
20	Blackburn	40	12	10	18	-12	+4.5	46
21	West Brom	40	11	11	18	-14	+9.0	44
22	Portsmouth	39	10	11	18	-17	+0.4	41
23	Oxford	40	9	13	18	-15	-8.0	40
24	Sheffield Weds	40	1	9	30	-57	-44.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.0	45
2	Ipswich	20	12	7	1	+22	+23.5	43
3	Watford	20	10	6	4	+9	+6.3	36
4	Millwall	19	11	3	5	+7	+7.8	36
5	Southampton	18	10	5	3	+15	+11.2	35
6	Birmingham	20	9	8	3	+13	+18.4	35
7	Swansea	20	10	5	5	+6	-0.5	35
8	Middlesbrough	19	9	6	4	+8	+11.8	33
9	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
10	Hull	18	10	3	5	+5	-5.3	33
11	Stoke	20	9	5	6	+10	+2.5	32
12	QPR	20	10	2	8	+5	+8.2	32
13	Derby	20	8	6	6	+2	+2.0	30
14	Preston	20	8	6	6	+2	-2.6	30
15	West Brom	20	7	8	5	+0	+12.0	29
16	Sheffield United	20	8	4	8	+7	+13.8	28
17	Charlton	20	8	4	8	-2	-0.8	28
18	Norwich	20	8	2	10	+0	+0.9	26
19	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-2	-1.3	26
20	Bristol City	20	7	4	9	+1	-2.4	25
21	Oxford	20	5	8	7	-7	+1.8	23
22	Portsmouth	19	6	4	9	-1	+7.1	22
23	Blackburn	20	4	7	9	-7	+5.5	19
24	Sheffield Weds	20	0	5	15	-31	-20.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	10	5	5	+16	+10.1	35
2	Millwall	19	9	6	4	+3	-1.5	33
3	Middlesbrough	18	9	4	5	+6	+10.1	31
4	Hull	19	9	4	6	+3	-15.3	31
5	Wrexham	20	8	7	5	+3	-12.0	31
6	Derby	19	9	3	7	+6	-1.9	30
7	Norwich	20	8	5	7	+6	-5.0	29
8	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-1	-2.7	29
9	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
10	Blackburn	20	8	3	9	-5	-1.0	27
11	Ipswich	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.9	26
12	QPR	20	6	6	8	-10	-8.4	24
13	Preston	20	5	8	7	-6	-12.7	23
14	Sheffield United	20	7	2	11	-7	-1.7	23
15	Stoke	20	6	4	10	-5	-11.7	22
16	Watford	20	4	8	8	-6	-0.9	20
17	Leicester	20	4	8	8	-7	-13.0	20
18	Charlton	20	4	8	8	-9	-15.1	20
19	Portsmouth	20	4	7	9	-16	-6.7	19
20	Swansea	20	5	3	12	-11	-4.2	18
21	Birmingham	20	5	3	12	-15	-4.7	18
22	Oxford	20	4	5	11	-8	-9.8	17
23	West Brom	20	4	3	13	-14	-2.9	15
24	Sheffield Weds	20	1	4	15	-26	-24.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.