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League Cup

Referee: Oliver Langford

Oxford

U T S T T

0–6

Full-time

Brighton

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

38% Possession 62%

19 Shots 19

11 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 10

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
2	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
3	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
4	Cambridge United	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.1	6
5	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
7	Reading	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
8	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.5	6
9	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
10	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
11	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
12	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
13	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.8	4
14	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
15	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
16	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
17	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
18	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
19	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
20	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
21	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
23	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
24	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
25	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
26	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
27	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
28	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
29	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
30	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
31	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
32	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
33	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
34	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
35	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
36	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
37	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
38	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
39	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
40	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
41	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
42	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
43	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
45	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
46	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
47	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
48	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
49	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
50	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
51	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
52	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
53	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
55	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
56	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
57	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
58	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
59	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
60	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
61	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
62	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
63	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
64	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
65	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
66	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
67	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
68	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
69	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
70	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
71	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
72	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
73	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
74	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
76	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
77	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
78	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
79	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
3	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
4	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
5	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
7	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
8	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
11	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
12	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
13	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
14	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
18	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
19	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
20	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
21	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
22	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
23	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
24	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
25	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
26	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
30	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
31	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
32	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
34	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
35	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
36	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
37	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
39	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
40	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
41	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
42	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
43	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
45	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
46	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
47	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
2	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
3	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
4	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
5	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
6	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
7	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
8	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
10	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
11	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
12	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
13	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
14	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
15	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
16	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
17	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
18	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
19	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
20	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
21	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
22	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
24	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
26	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
27	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
28	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
29	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
30	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
31	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
32	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
34	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
35	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
36	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
37	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
39	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
40	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
41	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
42	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
43	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
44	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
46	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
47	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.