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Championship

Referee: L Smith

Watford

T U S T T

0–1

Full-time

Norwich

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 38%

41%

34%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

66%

55%

Both score Ø 64%

66%

62%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,71 xG 2,57

42% Possession 58%

9 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 9. · Norwich 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	29	17	9	3	+34	+30.6	60
2	Burnley	29	15	12	2	+27	+6.8	57
3	Sunderland	27	15	9	3	+19	+8.9	54
4	Sheffield United	27	16	6	5	+17	+12.6	54
5	Blackburn	30	13	6	11	+5	-0.6	45
6	West Brom	29	10	14	5	+13	+6.3	44
7	Middlesbrough	29	12	8	9	+11	+15.3	44
8	Bristol City	28	10	11	7	+4	+5.1	41
9	Watford	29	12	5	12	-1	-6.1	41
10	Sheffield Weds	29	11	8	10	-3	-5.4	41
11	Norwich	29	10	9	10	+6	+6.2	39
12	QPR	29	9	11	9	-5	-4.3	38
13	Millwall	29	9	10	10	+2	+5.8	37
14	Coventry	28	10	7	11	+1	+16.9	37
15	Preston	30	8	13	9	-5	-0.8	37
16	Oxford	29	9	9	11	-10	-13.4	36
17	Swansea	29	9	7	13	-8	-0.8	34
18	Cardiff	29	7	10	12	-11	-8.7	31
19	Hull	29	7	8	14	-8	-4.8	29
20	Stoke	29	6	11	12	-10	-15.4	29
21	Portsmouth	29	7	8	14	-16	-14.9	29
22	Derby	29	7	6	16	-8	-6.6	27
23	Luton	29	7	5	17	-19	-3.4	26
24	Plymouth	29	4	10	15	-35	-29.2	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	15	12	2	1	+28	+20.4	38
2	Sunderland	13	9	4	0	+14	+6.7	31
3	Sheffield United	13	9	2	2	+10	+12.4	29
4	Blackburn	16	9	2	5	+8	+4.0	29
5	Watford	14	9	2	3	+8	+0.2	29
6	Oxford	15	8	4	3	+4	-2.6	28
7	Norwich	14	7	5	2	+17	+11.5	26
8	Bristol City	13	7	5	1	+11	+7.4	26
9	Burnley	14	6	8	0	+11	+2.8	26
10	Middlesbrough	15	7	5	3	+7	+7.6	26
11	West Brom	14	6	7	1	+11	+6.0	25
12	Preston	15	6	7	2	+5	+3.7	25
13	Coventry	14	7	3	4	+8	+13.1	24
14	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+8	+1.8	22
15	Luton	15	6	4	5	+1	+4.1	22
16	Millwall	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.7	21
17	Sheffield Weds	15	5	6	4	+2	+1.1	21
18	Swansea	14	5	5	4	+5	+8.8	20
19	Derby	14	6	2	6	+5	+2.4	20
20	QPR	15	5	5	5	-1	+3.5	20
21	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-1	-2.6	20
22	Stoke	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.5	19
23	Plymouth	14	4	6	4	-3	-6.4	18
24	Hull	15	2	6	7	-5	+1.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	15	9	4	2	+16	+3.9	31
2	Sheffield United	14	7	4	3	+7	+0.2	25
3	Sunderland	14	6	5	3	+5	+2.2	23
4	Leeds	14	5	7	2	+6	+10.2	22
5	Sheffield Weds	14	6	2	6	-5	-6.6	20
6	West Brom	15	4	7	4	+2	+0.3	19
7	Middlesbrough	14	5	3	6	+4	+7.7	18
8	QPR	14	4	6	4	-4	-7.8	18
9	Hull	14	5	2	7	-3	-6.0	17
10	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-1	-0.9	16
11	Blackburn	14	4	4	6	-3	-4.5	16
12	Bristol City	15	3	6	6	-7	-2.3	15
13	Swansea	15	4	2	9	-13	-9.6	14
14	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-7	+3.8	13
15	Norwich	15	3	4	8	-11	-5.3	13
16	Watford	15	3	3	9	-9	-6.3	12
17	Preston	15	2	6	7	-10	-4.5	12
18	Cardiff	14	1	8	5	-10	-6.1	11
19	Stoke	14	2	4	8	-11	-10.9	10
20	Oxford	14	1	5	8	-14	-10.7	8
21	Derby	15	1	4	10	-13	-9.0	7
22	Portsmouth	15	1	4	10	-24	-16.7	7
23	Luton	14	1	1	12	-20	-7.5	4
24	Plymouth	15	0	4	11	-32	-22.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.