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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Man City

S S T S T

4–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,7

3,7

Scored

2,2

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 65%

71%

58%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,90 xG 0,48

62% Possession 38%

11 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 5. · Newcastle 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	24	17	6	1	+35	+33.6	57
2	Arsenal	25	15	8	2	+29	+19.5	53
3	Nott'm Forest	24	14	5	5	+13	+5.3	47
4	Chelsea	25	12	7	6	+13	+13.8	43
5	Man City	24	12	5	7	+13	+10.3	41
6	Newcastle	24	12	5	7	+13	+11.7	41
7	Bournemouth	24	11	7	6	+13	+14.7	40
8	Brighton	25	9	10	6	+0	-2.9	37
9	Aston Villa	24	10	7	7	-3	+4.8	37
10	Fulham	24	9	9	6	+4	+6.3	36
11	Brentford	24	9	4	11	+0	-1.2	31
12	Crystal Palace	24	7	9	8	-2	+0.6	30
13	Man United	24	8	5	11	-6	-3.0	29
14	Tottenham	24	8	3	13	+11	-0.9	27
15	Everton	24	6	9	9	-5	-5.0	27
16	West Ham	24	7	6	11	-17	-9.1	27
17	Wolves	24	5	4	15	-18	-13.8	19
18	Leicester	25	4	5	16	-30	-25.5	17
19	Ipswich	24	3	7	14	-27	-26.4	16
20	Southampton	24	2	3	19	-36	-32.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	8	4	0	+17	+14.4	28
2	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.5	26
3	Nott'm Forest	12	7	3	2	+12	+6.3	24
4	Man City	11	7	2	2	+9	+10.2	23
5	Aston Villa	12	6	5	1	+6	+11.5	23
6	Brentford	13	7	2	4	+4	+4.1	23
7	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+7	+11.0	22
8	Bournemouth	12	6	3	3	+8	+9.4	21
9	Newcastle	12	6	2	4	+6	+5.2	20
10	Brighton	12	4	6	2	+3	+3.0	18
11	Everton	13	4	5	4	+3	-0.3	17
12	Fulham	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.4	17
13	Man United	13	5	1	7	-5	+0.3	16
14	Tottenham	12	4	2	6	+4	+0.2	14
15	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
16	Crystal Palace	12	2	5	5	-8	+0.4	11
17	Wolves	12	3	1	8	-8	-4.9	10
18	Leicester	13	2	3	8	-12	-10.9	9
19	Ipswich	13	1	4	8	-17	-10.3	7
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-22	-19.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	9	4	0	+20	+19.1	31
2	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+5.1	25
3	Nott'm Forest	12	7	2	3	+1	-0.9	23
4	Newcastle	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.5	21
5	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+6	+2.8	21
6	Crystal Palace	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.2	19
7	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
8	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+4	+4.9	19
9	Brighton	13	5	4	4	-3	-5.9	19
10	Man City	13	5	3	5	+4	+0.1	18
11	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-9	-6.7	14
12	Tottenham	12	4	1	7	+7	-1.1	13
13	Man United	11	3	4	4	-1	-3.2	13
14	West Ham	12	3	4	5	-7	-2.5	13
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.7	10
16	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.9	9
17	Ipswich	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.0	9
18	Brentford	11	2	2	7	-4	-5.2	8
19	Leicester	12	2	2	8	-18	-14.6	8
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-14	-13.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.