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Championship

Referee: S Hooper

Watford

S U U S T

3–2

Full-time

Norwich

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 37%

29%

44%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

41%

69%

Both score Ø 49%

29%

69%

Average goals

2,5

3,6

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,04 xG 0,57

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 16. · Norwich 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	17	14	0	3	+21	+14.3	42
2	Ipswich	17	12	3	2	+13	+9.2	39
3	West Brom	17	9	5	3	+13	+3.5	32
4	Hull	18	8	6	4	+6	+3.9	30
5	Leeds	16	8	5	3	+10	+11.3	29
6	Southampton	16	8	4	4	+0	+5.3	28
7	Preston	18	8	4	6	-6	-6.6	28
8	Cardiff	18	8	3	7	+6	-2.2	27
9	Middlesbrough	18	8	3	7	+3	+11.9	27
10	Sunderland	17	8	2	7	+8	+9.4	26
11	Blackburn	17	8	1	8	+1	+2.2	25
12	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+1	+1.2	25
13	Norwich	16	7	2	7	-1	-1.1	23
14	Coventry	18	5	7	6	+2	+6.8	22
15	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-2	-2.4	22
16	Watford	17	5	6	6	+3	+2.4	21
17	Stoke	18	6	3	9	-7	-4.4	21
18	Swansea	17	5	5	7	+1	-4.7	20
19	Millwall	17	5	5	7	-3	-6.6	20
20	Plymouth	18	5	4	9	+1	-8.9	19
21	Huddersfield	17	3	7	7	-14	-7.9	16
22	QPR	18	3	4	11	-15	-9.8	13
23	Rotherham	18	2	6	10	-20	-21.7	12
24	Sheffield Weds	17	1	3	13	-21	-5.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	8	7	0	1	+10	+9.6	21
2	Leicester	9	7	0	2	+9	+6.9	21
3	West Brom	9	6	2	1	+9	+4.5	20
4	Leeds	8	5	3	0	+9	+8.6	18
5	Birmingham	9	5	3	1	+6	+1.6	18
6	Preston	9	5	2	2	+0	-2.3	17
7	Plymouth	9	5	1	3	+9	-4.0	16
8	Hull	9	4	4	1	+6	+5.1	16
9	Cardiff	9	5	1	3	+5	-0.6	16
10	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	+4	+7.7	16
11	Watford	9	4	3	2	+10	+7.1	15
12	Sunderland	8	5	0	3	+6	+4.1	15
13	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.9	15
14	Coventry	9	3	5	1	+3	+5.1	14
15	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.1	14
16	Stoke	9	4	1	4	-2	-2.2	13
17	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.5	11
18	Rotherham	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.8	11
19	Swansea	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.2	10
20	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-6	-3.9	10
21	Blackburn	8	3	0	5	-5	+2.1	9
22	Millwall	9	2	1	6	-8	-2.7	7
23	QPR	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5
24	Sheffield Weds	8	1	2	5	-8	-0.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	8	7	0	1	+12	+7.5	21
2	Ipswich	9	5	3	1	+3	-0.4	18
3	Southampton	9	5	2	2	-1	+0.9	17
4	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.1	16
5	Hull	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.3	14
6	Millwall	8	3	4	1	+5	-3.8	13
7	West Brom	8	3	3	2	+4	-1.0	12
8	Sunderland	9	3	2	4	+2	+5.3	11
9	Cardiff	9	3	2	4	+1	-1.5	11
10	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.7	11
11	Middlesbrough	9	3	2	4	-1	+4.2	11
12	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	-1	-0.9	11
13	Preston	9	3	2	4	-6	-4.4	11
14	Swansea	8	3	1	4	+1	-3.4	10
15	Coventry	9	2	2	5	-1	+1.7	8
16	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-3	-3.0	8
17	Stoke	9	2	2	5	-5	-2.2	8
18	QPR	10	2	2	6	-7	-7.2	8
19	Watford	8	1	3	4	-7	-4.7	6
20	Huddersfield	8	1	3	4	-8	-4.0	6
21	Birmingham	8	1	1	6	-8	-4.0	4
22	Plymouth	9	0	3	6	-8	-4.9	3
23	Sheffield Weds	9	0	1	8	-13	-4.8	1
24	Rotherham	9	0	1	8	-21	-15.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.