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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Middlesbrough

S S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Leicester

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 64%

40%

87%

Points per game

1,4

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

1,5

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,98 xG 0,80

33% Possession 67%

9 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 12. · Leicester 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	15	13	0	2	+20	+12.2	39
2	Ipswich	15	11	3	1	+14	+8.3	36
3	Preston	16	8	4	4	-1	-3.5	28
4	Southampton	15	8	3	4	+0	+4.4	27
5	Sunderland	16	8	2	6	+10	+8.4	26
6	West Brom	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.4	26
7	Leeds	14	7	4	3	+9	+10.2	25
8	Cardiff	15	7	3	5	+7	-0.3	24
9	Hull	15	6	5	4	+2	-0.7	23
10	Blackburn	16	7	1	8	-2	+1.3	22
11	Bristol City	15	6	3	6	+0	-0.2	21
12	Middlesbrough	15	6	3	6	-1	+10.4	21
13	Stoke	15	6	2	7	-2	-1.7	20
14	Swansea	15	5	4	6	+2	-2.4	19
15	Birmingham	16	5	4	7	-3	-1.6	19
16	Watford	15	4	6	5	+0	+2.9	18
17	Norwich	14	5	2	7	-3	-2.8	17
18	Millwall	15	4	5	6	-4	-6.3	17
19	Plymouth	15	4	4	7	+1	-7.1	16
20	Coventry	15	3	6	6	-2	+5.1	15
21	Huddersfield	15	3	6	6	-13	-5.7	15
22	Rotherham	15	2	5	8	-12	-15.7	11
23	QPR	15	2	3	10	-16	-11.1	9
24	Sheffield Weds	15	1	3	11	-16	-5.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	7	6	0	1	+9	+7.4	18
2	Leicester	8	6	0	2	+7	+4.5	18
3	West Brom	8	5	2	1	+7	+3.2	17
4	Preston	8	5	2	1	+1	-1.8	17
5	Cardiff	7	5	1	1	+7	+1.7	16
6	Leeds	7	4	3	0	+8	+8.5	15
7	Sunderland	8	5	0	3	+6	+4.1	15
8	Birmingham	8	4	3	1	+5	+2.4	15
9	Plymouth	8	4	1	3	+7	-3.1	13
10	Stoke	8	4	1	3	+1	-1.3	13
11	Watford	8	3	3	2	+5	+5.3	12
12	Norwich	7	4	0	3	+1	+1.8	12
13	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.5	11
14	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.7	11
15	Coventry	7	2	4	1	+2	+3.8	10
16	Hull	7	2	4	1	+2	+0.6	10
17	Rotherham	8	2	4	2	+1	-4.8	10
18	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	-1	+4.8	10
19	Swansea	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.2	9
20	Blackburn	8	3	0	5	-5	+2.1	9
21	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	-6	-3.0	9
22	Millwall	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.3	7
23	Sheffield Weds	7	1	2	4	-4	-0.1	5
24	QPR	6	0	1	5	-10	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	7	7	0	0	+13	+7.7	21
2	Ipswich	8	5	3	0	+5	+0.9	18
3	Southampton	8	5	1	2	-1	-0.1	16
4	Blackburn	8	4	1	3	+3	-0.8	13
5	Hull	8	4	1	3	+0	-1.3	13
6	Sunderland	8	3	2	3	+4	+4.3	11
7	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	+0	+5.6	11
8	Preston	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.7	11
9	Swansea	7	3	1	3	+2	-1.2	10
10	Leeds	7	3	1	3	+1	+1.8	10
11	Millwall	7	2	4	1	+1	-4.0	10
12	Bristol City	7	3	1	3	-1	-0.9	10
13	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+3	-1.8	9
14	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	+0	-2.0	8
15	QPR	9	2	2	5	-6	-7.1	8
16	Stoke	7	2	1	4	-3	-0.3	7
17	Watford	7	1	3	3	-5	-2.4	6
18	Huddersfield	7	1	3	3	-7	-2.7	6
19	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-4	-4.6	5
20	Coventry	8	1	2	5	-4	+1.2	5
21	Birmingham	8	1	1	6	-8	-4.0	4
22	Plymouth	7	0	3	4	-6	-4.0	3
23	Sheffield Weds	8	0	1	7	-12	-5.6	1
24	Rotherham	7	0	1	6	-13	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.