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Serie B

Referee: M Piccinini

Carrarese

T T T U U

0–1

Full-time

Palermo

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carrarese Palermo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

17%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 40%

25%

54%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,74 xG 1,70

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 5

4 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Carrarese 12. · Palermo 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	29	19	6	4	+35	+26.1	63
2	Monza	29	18	6	5	+21	+12.0	60
3	Frosinone	29	16	10	3	+27	+8.1	58
4	Palermo	28	15	9	4	+26	+9.0	54
5	Catanzaro	29	13	10	6	+11	+1.8	49
6	Modena	29	12	8	9	+13	+8.0	44
7	Juve Stabia	29	9	13	7	-2	+1.7	40
8	Cesena	29	11	6	12	-5	+3.9	39
9	Sudtirol	29	8	13	8	+2	-2.6	37
10	Padova	29	8	10	11	-6	-6.9	34
11	Avellino	29	8	9	12	-15	-14.7	33
12	Carrarese	28	7	11	10	-5	-8.8	32
13	Empoli	29	7	10	12	-6	-0.1	31
14	Virtus Entella	29	7	10	12	-13	-11.2	31
15	Sampdoria	29	7	9	13	-11	-0.3	30
16	Mantova	29	8	6	15	-14	+0.5	30
17	Spezia	29	7	8	14	-10	+0.1	29
18	Reggiana	29	7	8	14	-13	-6.7	29
19	Bari	28	6	10	12	-15	-13.7	28
20	Pescara	28	4	10	14	-20	-6.3	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	15	13	0	2	+24	+13.8	39
2	Palermo	15	11	3	1	+21	+6.2	36
3	Monza	14	11	2	1	+16	+9.5	35
4	Catanzaro	15	8	6	1	+10	+2.7	30
5	Frosinone	14	8	4	2	+16	+5.2	28
6	Juve Stabia	14	6	7	1	+7	+3.7	25
7	Virtus Entella	14	6	6	2	+5	-3.6	24
8	Modena	15	6	4	5	+7	-0.1	22
9	Sampdoria	14	6	4	4	+2	+3.6	22
10	Avellino	15	6	4	5	-3	-6.9	22
11	Carrarese	14	5	6	3	+6	+1.6	21
12	Mantova	15	6	3	6	-4	+2.7	21
13	Sudtirol	14	5	4	5	+3	-3.0	19
14	Empoli	15	3	9	3	+4	+4.4	18
15	Cesena	14	5	3	6	-2	+4.5	18
16	Reggiana	14	4	5	5	-3	-1.9	17
17	Bari	14	4	5	5	-3	-7.7	17
18	Padova	14	3	7	4	-1	-4.8	16
19	Spezia	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.4	16
20	Pescara	14	3	5	6	-4	-3.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	15	8	6	1	+11	+2.9	30
2	Monza	15	7	4	4	+5	+2.5	25
3	Venezia	14	6	6	2	+11	+12.3	24
4	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
5	Cesena	15	6	3	6	-3	-0.7	21
6	Catanzaro	14	5	4	5	+1	-0.8	19
7	Palermo	13	4	6	3	+5	+2.8	18
8	Sudtirol	15	3	9	3	-1	+0.5	18
9	Padova	15	5	3	7	-5	-2.1	18
10	Juve Stabia	15	3	6	6	-9	-2.0	15
11	Spezia	14	3	4	7	-4	+0.5	13
12	Empoli	14	4	1	9	-10	-4.5	13
13	Reggiana	15	3	3	9	-10	-4.8	12
14	Carrarese	14	2	5	7	-11	-10.4	11
15	Avellino	14	2	5	7	-12	-7.8	11
16	Bari	14	2	5	7	-12	-6.0	11
17	Mantova	14	2	3	9	-10	-2.2	9
18	Sampdoria	15	1	5	9	-13	-3.9	8
19	Pescara	14	1	5	8	-16	-2.6	8
20	Virtus Entella	15	1	4	10	-18	-7.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.