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Serie B

Referee: M Perri

Padova

U S T U S

2–2

Full-time

Spezia

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Padova Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 26%

30%

22%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

41%

33%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

48%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,69 xG 1,09

51% Possession 49%

19 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 10

5 Blocked shots 2

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Padova 10. · Spezia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	27	17	6	4	+29	+22.5	57
2	Monza	27	17	6	4	+21	+12.3	57
3	Frosinone	27	15	9	3	+24	+5.2	54
4	Palermo	27	14	9	4	+25	+8.6	51
5	Catanzaro	27	12	9	6	+10	+0.3	45
6	Modena	27	12	7	8	+14	+5.6	43
7	Juve Stabia	27	9	12	6	+0	+2.6	39
8	Cesena	27	11	5	11	-3	+5.2	38
9	Sudtirol	27	7	13	7	-1	-3.2	34
10	Padova	27	8	9	10	-5	-6.4	33
11	Empoli	27	7	10	10	-4	+1.9	31
12	Carrarese	27	7	10	10	-5	-8.4	31
13	Avellino	27	7	9	11	-12	-14.1	30
14	Reggiana	27	7	8	12	-7	-4.1	29
15	Sampdoria	27	7	8	12	-8	+1.6	29
16	Mantova	27	7	6	14	-15	-0.5	27
17	Spezia	27	6	7	14	-12	-0.0	25
18	Virtus Entella	27	5	10	12	-15	-9.7	25
19	Bari	27	5	10	12	-16	-14.5	25
20	Pescara	27	4	9	14	-20	-4.8	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	14	11	2	1	+16	+9.5	35
2	Palermo	14	10	3	1	+20	+5.8	33
3	Venezia	13	11	0	2	+18	+10.1	33
4	Catanzaro	14	7	6	1	+9	+1.5	27
5	Frosinone	12	7	3	2	+13	+2.3	24
6	Juve Stabia	13	6	6	1	+7	+3.2	24
7	Sampdoria	14	6	4	4	+2	+3.6	22
8	Modena	14	6	3	5	+7	-0.9	21
9	Virtus Entella	13	5	6	2	+4	-2.1	21
10	Carrarese	13	5	5	3	+6	+2.0	20
11	Sudtirol	13	5	4	4	+4	-2.9	19
12	Avellino	14	5	4	5	-4	-8.1	19
13	Empoli	15	3	9	3	+4	+4.4	18
14	Cesena	13	5	3	5	+0	+5.1	18
15	Mantova	14	5	3	6	-6	+1.3	18
16	Reggiana	13	4	5	4	+1	-1.2	17
17	Padova	13	3	6	4	-1	-5.4	15
18	Pescara	14	3	5	6	-4	-3.8	14
19	Bari	13	3	5	5	-4	-8.5	14
20	Spezia	14	3	4	7	-8	-1.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	15	8	6	1	+11	+2.9	30
2	Venezia	14	6	6	2	+11	+12.3	24
3	Modena	13	6	4	3	+7	+6.5	22
4	Monza	13	6	4	3	+5	+2.7	22
5	Cesena	14	6	2	6	-3	+0.2	20
6	Palermo	13	4	6	3	+5	+2.8	18
7	Catanzaro	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.2	18
8	Padova	14	5	3	6	-4	-1.0	18
9	Sudtirol	14	2	9	3	-5	-0.2	15
10	Juve Stabia	14	3	6	5	-7	-0.6	15
11	Empoli	12	4	1	7	-8	-2.5	13
12	Spezia	13	3	3	7	-4	+1.1	12
13	Reggiana	14	3	3	8	-8	-2.9	12
14	Avellino	13	2	5	6	-8	-6.0	11
15	Carrarese	14	2	5	7	-11	-10.4	11
16	Bari	14	2	5	7	-12	-6.0	11
17	Mantova	13	2	3	8	-9	-1.8	9
18	Sampdoria	13	1	4	8	-10	-2.0	7
19	Pescara	13	1	4	8	-16	-1.0	7
20	Virtus Entella	14	0	4	10	-19	-7.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.