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2. Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Nurnberg

S S T U T

5–1

Full-time

Karlsruhe

U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nurnberg Karlsruhe

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

57%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

62%

52%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,77 xG 1,57

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nurnberg 10. · Karlsruhe 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	21	11	8	2	+18	+7.7	41
2	Schalke 04	21	12	4	5	+10	+5.5	40
3	Paderborn	21	12	3	6	+9	+10.5	39
4	Elversberg	21	11	5	5	+14	-0.2	38
5	Hannover	21	11	5	5	+10	+10.0	38
6	Hertha	21	9	7	5	+8	-3.1	34
7	Kaiserslautern	21	9	4	8	+4	-1.9	31
8	Bochum	21	7	6	8	+3	+3.7	27
9	Karlsruhe	21	7	6	8	-7	-15.8	27
10	Nurnberg	21	7	5	9	-6	+1.6	26
11	Bielefeld	21	6	6	9	+3	+1.7	24
12	Holstein Kiel	21	6	6	9	-3	-10.1	24
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	21	7	3	11	-11	-3.3	24
14	Braunschweig	21	7	3	11	-12	+0.1	24
15	Magdeburg	21	7	2	12	-6	+5.1	23
16	Preußen Münster	21	5	7	9	-7	-5.0	22
17	Dresden	21	5	6	10	-7	+0.3	21
18	Greuther Furth	21	5	4	12	-20	-6.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	11	8	3	0	+16	+8.5	27
2	Schalke 04	10	7	2	1	+6	+3.2	23
3	Kaiserslautern	11	7	1	3	+10	+1.7	22
4	Paderborn	11	7	1	3	+4	+6.3	22
5	Elversberg	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.4	19
6	Hannover	10	6	1	3	+4	+8.5	19
7	Nurnberg	11	5	4	2	+2	+1.7	19
8	Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+8	+7.5	17
9	Bochum	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.8	17
10	Karlsruhe	10	5	2	3	+0	-7.6	17
11	Hertha	11	4	4	3	-1	-0.6	16
12	Preußen Münster	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
13	Holstein Kiel	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.2	14
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	4	2	5	-5	-1.5	14
15	Braunschweig	11	4	2	5	-7	+1.5	14
16	Dresden	10	2	3	5	-2	+4.1	9
17	Greuther Furth	10	2	3	5	-10	-4.0	9
18	Magdeburg	10	2	1	7	-6	+3.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	11	6	1	4	+7	+0.2	19
2	Hannover	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.6	19
3	Hertha	10	5	3	2	+9	-2.5	18
4	Paderborn	10	5	2	3	+5	+4.2	17
5	Schalke 04	11	5	2	4	+4	+2.3	17
6	Magdeburg	11	5	1	5	+0	+2.1	16
7	Darmstadt	10	3	5	2	+2	-0.8	14
8	Dresden	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.8	12
9	Bochum	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.1	10
10	Holstein Kiel	11	2	4	5	-5	-9.0	10
11	Braunschweig	10	3	1	6	-5	-1.5	10
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	1	6	-6	-1.8	10
13	Karlsruhe	11	2	4	5	-7	-8.2	10
14	Greuther Furth	11	3	1	7	-10	-2.7	10
15	Kaiserslautern	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.6	9
16	Bielefeld	10	1	4	5	-5	-5.8	7
17	Preußen Münster	10	2	1	7	-8	-5.4	7
18	Nurnberg	10	2	1	7	-8	-0.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.