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2. Bundesliga

Referee: F Lechner

Holstein Kiel

S U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Schalke 04

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Schalke 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 43%

29%

57%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

62%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,35 xG 3,06

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

19 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 14. · Schalke 04 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	22	11	9	2	+18	+7.1	42
2	Elversberg	22	12	5	5	+15	+0.1	41
3	Hannover	22	12	5	5	+11	+11.2	41
4	Schalke 04	21	12	4	5	+10	+5.5	40
5	Paderborn	21	12	3	6	+9	+10.5	39
6	Hertha	22	9	7	6	+7	-4.3	34
7	Kaiserslautern	22	10	4	8	+5	-0.9	34
8	Nurnberg	22	8	5	9	-2	+1.8	29
9	Bochum	21	7	6	8	+3	+3.7	27
10	Karlsruhe	22	7	6	9	-11	-16.0	27
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	22	7	4	11	-11	-2.5	25
12	Braunschweig	22	7	4	11	-12	+0.7	25
13	Bielefeld	21	6	6	9	+3	+1.7	24
14	Holstein Kiel	21	6	6	9	-3	-10.1	24
15	Magdeburg	21	7	2	12	-6	+5.1	23
16	Preußen Münster	22	5	8	9	-7	-5.8	23
17	Dresden	22	5	6	11	-8	-0.0	21
18	Greuther Furth	22	5	4	13	-21	-7.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	11	8	3	0	+16	+8.5	27
2	Kaiserslautern	12	8	1	3	+11	+2.7	25
3	Schalke 04	10	7	2	1	+6	+3.2	23
4	Nurnberg	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.9	22
5	Paderborn	11	7	1	3	+4	+6.3	22
6	Elversberg	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.4	19
7	Hannover	10	6	1	3	+4	+8.5	19
8	Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+8	+7.5	17
9	Bochum	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.8	17
10	Karlsruhe	10	5	2	3	+0	-7.6	17
11	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	-1.8	16
12	Preußen Münster	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	4	3	5	-5	-0.7	15
14	Braunschweig	12	4	3	5	-7	+2.2	15
15	Holstein Kiel	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.2	14
16	Dresden	11	2	3	6	-3	+3.8	9
17	Greuther Furth	10	2	3	5	-10	-4.0	9
18	Magdeburg	10	2	1	7	-6	+3.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	12	7	1	4	+8	+0.5	22
2	Hannover	12	6	4	2	+7	+2.8	22
3	Hertha	10	5	3	2	+9	-2.5	18
4	Paderborn	10	5	2	3	+5	+4.2	17
5	Schalke 04	11	5	2	4	+4	+2.3	17
6	Magdeburg	11	5	1	5	+0	+2.1	16
7	Darmstadt	11	3	6	2	+2	-1.4	15
8	Dresden	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.8	12
9	Bochum	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.1	10
10	Holstein Kiel	11	2	4	5	-5	-9.0	10
11	Braunschweig	10	3	1	6	-5	-1.5	10
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	1	6	-6	-1.8	10
13	Greuther Furth	12	3	1	8	-11	-3.7	10
14	Karlsruhe	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.4	10
15	Kaiserslautern	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.6	9
16	Preußen Münster	11	2	2	7	-8	-6.2	8
17	Bielefeld	10	1	4	5	-5	-5.8	7
18	Nurnberg	10	2	1	7	-8	-0.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.