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2. Bundesliga

Referee: T Gansloweit

Nurnberg

U T S U T

0–1

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nurnberg Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

58%

54%

Both score Ø 63%

67%

58%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,64 xG 2,42

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nurnberg 9. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	25	15	5	5	+14	+11.4	50
2	Elversberg	25	14	6	5	+18	+2.2	48
3	Paderborn	24	14	4	6	+13	+13.1	46
4	Darmstadt	24	12	9	3	+17	+7.3	45
5	Hannover	24	13	6	5	+12	+11.1	45
6	Kaiserslautern	24	11	4	9	+5	-1.2	37
7	Hertha	24	10	7	7	+5	-6.3	37
8	Karlsruhe	24	9	6	9	-7	-16.9	33
9	Nurnberg	24	8	6	10	-3	+1.5	30
10	Bochum	24	7	8	9	+2	+5.5	29
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	24	8	4	12	-11	-2.3	28
12	Bielefeld	25	7	6	12	+2	-0.5	27
13	Preußen Münster	24	6	8	10	-7	-8.4	26
14	Dresden	24	6	7	11	-6	-0.1	25
15	Holstein Kiel	24	6	7	11	-6	-12.8	25
16	Braunschweig	24	7	4	13	-15	-0.7	25
17	Magdeburg	25	7	2	16	-13	+5.4	23
18	Greuther Furth	24	6	5	13	-20	-8.2	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	12	9	3	0	+17	+8.7	30
2	Schalke 04	12	9	2	1	+9	+6.2	29
3	Kaiserslautern	13	8	1	4	+10	+0.3	25
4	Elversberg	12	7	4	1	+10	+1.8	25
5	Paderborn	12	8	1	3	+7	+8.4	25
6	Nurnberg	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.9	22
7	Hannover	11	6	2	3	+4	+8.5	20
8	Karlsruhe	11	6	2	3	+2	-6.6	20
9	Bochum	12	5	4	3	+5	+9.0	19
10	Hertha	13	5	4	4	-1	-1.8	19
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	5	3	5	-4	-0.4	18
12	Bielefeld	12	5	2	5	+7	+7.7	17
13	Holstein Kiel	12	4	3	5	+1	-2.8	15
14	Preußen Münster	12	3	6	3	+0	-1.7	15
15	Braunschweig	13	4	3	6	-8	+2.7	15
16	Greuther Furth	12	3	4	5	-9	-4.5	13
17	Dresden	12	3	3	6	-1	+3.7	12
18	Magdeburg	12	2	1	9	-10	+5.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	13	7	4	2	+8	+2.6	25
2	Elversberg	13	7	2	4	+8	+0.4	23
3	Paderborn	12	6	3	3	+6	+4.7	21
4	Schalke 04	13	6	3	4	+5	+5.2	21
5	Hertha	11	5	3	3	+6	-4.5	18
6	Magdeburg	13	5	1	7	-3	+0.1	16
7	Darmstadt	12	3	6	3	+0	-1.3	15
8	Dresden	12	3	4	5	-5	-3.8	13
9	Karlsruhe	13	3	4	6	-9	-10.3	13
10	Kaiserslautern	11	3	3	5	-5	-1.5	12
11	Preußen Münster	12	3	2	7	-7	-6.7	11
12	Bochum	12	2	4	6	-3	-3.5	10
13	Bielefeld	13	2	4	7	-5	-8.2	10
14	Holstein Kiel	12	2	4	6	-7	-10.0	10
15	Braunschweig	11	3	1	7	-7	-3.4	10
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.0	10
17	Greuther Furth	12	3	1	8	-11	-3.7	10
18	Nurnberg	12	2	2	8	-9	-0.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.